Analysis Black by-election, Adelaide 500 promise back-to-back wins for Labor’s man of the people | Paul Starick

Premier Peter Malinauskas is poised to be celebrating another win as he watches Cold Chisel at the Adelaide 500 this weekend, Paul Starick writes.

Cold Chisel sprang out of Adelaide pubs and onto the national stage, creating a soundtrack for the lives of young people in the 1970s and 80s.

The legendary band – the headline act for Sunday night’s Vailo Adelaide 500 concert – forged an extraordinary connection with mainstream Australians that endured well beyond its initial break-up after the famed 1983 Last Stand concert.

Songs like Khe Sanh, Shipping Steel, Bow River, Merry-Go-Round, Breakfast at Sweethearts and Flame Trees spoke directly to the lives of everyday Australians, in language of the time that, looking back, often references a proud manufacturing era that has largely disappeared.

Bow River told of a young man “wastin’ my days on a factory floor”.

Merry-Go-Round described a man who was 25 and “half-alive”, working for a living “just to earn my soul for a weekend show”.

Shipping Steel was the voice of a truck driver, his “hammer down the open road, steel pigs my only load”.

Young Adelaide rock band Cold Chisel pictured in 1974 by an Advertiser photographer.- from left (back row) Ian Moss, Les Kaczmarek, and Don Walker; (front row) Jimmy Barnes and Steve Prestwich.

Much has been written of Donald Trump winning the Presidential election because of his plain-speaking appeal to mainstream Americans, rather than the urban, university-educated elites.

But The Advertiser on Wednesday revealed internal Labor polling had exposed a gaping divide among this crucial demographic between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Peter Malinauskas.

Young men had drifted away from Mr Albanese, who has been wounded over his Qantas upgrades and luxury beachside home purchase.

By contrast, Mr Malinauskas is viewed much more favourably as a strong leader. His detractors, both within his own party and externally, sometimes brand him a jock for his love of sport.

His sports fan persona is authentic and genuine. But it greatly stokes his appeal to mainstream Australians and young people, aided by his government’s return of the Adelaide 500 and successful attraction of AFL Gather Round and LIV Golf.

Premier Peter Malinauskas gets into the spirit of LIV Golf behind the decks with Bangaz & Ash-DJ Duo Ashlee Grindle and Kai Ward at 2kw Bar & Restaurant during an announcement regarding the 2025 event. Picture: Mark Brake

Mr Malinauskas’s ongoing voter popularity has senior Liberals extremely worried about losing Saturday’s by-election in Black. This was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs, who retains some support in the southwestern Adelaide marginal seat.

Senior Liberals have told The Advertiser that party members canvassing at pre-poll stations in Black are deeply concerned and expect to lose.

One Liberal figure, forecasting a loss in Black, said this would trigger another upheaval in state ranks, because MPs and members were deeply concerned about a repeat of the 2021 Western Australian election wipe-out, at which the Liberals were left with just two seats.

This is ominous for the leadership of Vincent Tarzia, who replaced Mr Speirs after a ballot on August 12.

Mr Tarzia is more energetic and competitive than Mr Speirs, who quit the leadership on August 8, declaring he’d “had a gutful” of being undermined and lacked the energy to fight on.

He might be a footy fan, barracking for Norwood and the Adelaide Crows, but Mr Tarzia has not been able to counter Mr Malinauskas’s appeal to everyday voters.

He’s tried, even challenging Mr Malinauskas to “come clean about what he knows about any money owing from (Adelaide 500 sponsor) Vailo to creditors”.

Labor Candidate Alex Dighton and Liberal Candidate Amanda Wilson speak to people voting in the Black by-election on November 12. Picture: Brett Hartwig.

Mr Tarzia tried to paint the Premier as a friend of the elites, insisting he was “too busy getting photos standing next to celebrities like Katy Perry than standing up for small business owners”.

According to senior Liberals, this has not stuck. Liberal canvassers tell them Mr Malinauskas remains hugely popular in Black.

Labor broke political history in March by winning former Premier Steven Marshall’s inner-eastern seat of Dunstan – the first time a sitting state government had won an Opposition-held seat in a by-election for more than 116 years. The loss of Black would leave the Liberals with just 13 lower house seats.

Yet Mr Malinauskas is poised to be celebrating again on Sunday night, as he watches Cold Chisel with the Supercars fans who have underpinned his ongoing success.