‘Kill zones’: Terrifying way Israel plans to beat Hamas in Gaza

Open source intelligence satellite photos are offering hints of just how the enraged nation plans to demolish Hamas in Gaza.

ANALYSIS

Israeli tanks, armoured bulldozers and troops have cut a corridor across Gaza to the coast. And satellite photos are offering hints of just how the enraged nation plans to demolish Hamas.

“The Israeli strategy appears sequential and intricate, involving raids, intelligence gathering, and holding cleared pockets,” says former US Army Colonel Joe Buccino. “From these pockets, IDF troops plan to strike at Hamas leaders and then withdraw back to the cleared areas to request air support.”

Evidence of this strategy has been sifted from commercial satellite photos by a Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) open-source intelligence analyst and distributed through the OSINTtechnical Twitter account.

Another quick look at the IDF's armor-driven strategy for its advance into the central Gaza Strip.

On 11/3, six distinct strongpoints anchored a thin push into the Gaza Strip. Each was effectively a series of large dirt berms and revetments built by D-9 bulldozers.

(thread) pic.twitter.com/cdDRD7YvbH

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 5, 2023

It’s found six large rubble-dirt berms (raised platforms) and revetments (defensive walls) bulldozed into a thin corridor of controlled land extending from Israel’s border near Juhor ad Dik, along Gaza City’s southern perimeter to the Mediterranean coast.

The hasty fortifications provide IDF troops, tanks and equipment a safe refuge in hostile territory.

“The general IDF mechanised strategy in the area seems to be that D-9 bulldozers lead the way, clearing any potential mines or IEDs, and roughly every half mile, build a large laager with dirt berms,” the CNA analyst states.

The first IDF strongpoint is only about 1km from the initial entry point east of Juhor ad Dik.

Hamas released at least one video of an engagement in the area, and the town was heavily damaged, receiving what appears to be the most severe damage from the entire push so far. pic.twitter.com/XtaXyWexmN

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 5, 2023

Colonel Joe Buccino, who served in the Middle East, says he believes the IDF plans to kill Hamas commanders and destroy Gazan infrastructure – without exposing troops to deadly house-to-house fighting.

“The coming weeks will therefore likely focus on encirclement and attrition, rather than the block-by-block assault US forces chose as their method of attack during the first and second battles of Fallujah (during the invasion of Iraq) in 2004,” he argues in the journal Foreign Policy.

The extremes of urban warfare

The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats analysis team says captured Hamas plans suggest its fighters have withdrawn deep within Gaza City in the hope of drawing Israeli forces into prepared “kill zones”.

Decades of Israel’s “mowing the grass” tactics – where punitive air and artillery strikes against urban areas are followed up by quick ground raids – have been countered by Hamas moving underground.

Urban combat is brutal enough. Especially in bombed-out suburbs where the rubble offers ideal cover for defensive snipers and hidden explosives.

The existence of a complex tunnel network allowing defenders to move quickly from one block to another as Israeli troops struggle through narrow streets filled with debris complicates the challenge even more.

“Palestinian militant attacks behind the Israeli forward line of advance are probably another supporting effort intended to harass and disrupt Israeli forces, rather than defeat them,” the Critical Threats report states.

But Buccino says the IDF is well aware of the situation. “The IDF leadership understands that engaging in combat within densely populated urban areas and venturing underground will strip the Israeli military of most of its technological advantages, including advanced surveillance systems, sensors, and communications equipment. That would offer Hamas an edge both above and below ground.”

That’s why the IDF is experimenting with ways of avoiding such traps.

It has released photos and footage of its troops protecting military engineering forces clearing the route to the coast. But the creation of the bulldozed fortifications has so far only been seen in satellite images.

“This process will allow a slow building-out of pockets removed from Hamas control,” says Buccino. “The cycle of locating, isolating, constricting, and then eliminating Hamas commanders will grind on slowly.”

gaza_report) November 5, 2023

Expect a long fight

“It will take time,” says Buccino. “The senior IDF officers I spoke with believe the ground war in Gaza City will stretch for many months.”

The repeated failure to deter Hamas with devastating attacks on Gaza’s infrastructure and housing means Israel is now seeking to impose regime change on the Palestinian territory.

It also means an emphasis on intelligence gathering, not destruction.

“Inside the vast Hamas tunnel networks, the IDF’s Yahalom Unit, a specialised engineering force, will conduct targeted raids to gather enhanced intelligence,” he adds. “This intelligence will pinpoint Hamas’s leadership and command centres.

The tip of the advance can be seen here, led by D-9 bulldozers, armored vehicles, and backed by a Puma AEV equipped with a Carpet mine clearing system. pic.twitter.com/nNhlTiLOR0

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 5, 2023

“The IDF leaders I spoke with say they aim to kill as many of Hamas’s leaders as possible without fully investing in dangerous underground fighting.”

But it’s a strategy full of risks.

It gives Hamas leaders time to slip out of Gaza City through humanitarian corridors and its hidden tunnel networks.

#Gaza map update:

The #IDF have continued to progress along the Mediterranean coast from their positions north of Gaza City.

Although the City is cut off from the South of Gaza, #Israel have said that civilians will be able to evacuate. pic.twitter.com/rYECuwuWc8

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) November 5, 2023

It may also leave much of Hamas’ fighting capability intact for future insurgency operations.

And that will complicate what happens next … “The Day After Hamas”.

“The idea, detailed to me by a senior IDF leader, involves determining a mechanism to facilitate temporary governance through an international coalition until a sufficiently stable Palestinian government can be established,” says Buccino. “As of now, the plan seems to be hazy — not least because a post-war transition is not something for Israeli military leaders to decide on their own.”

And finding nations willing to make their personnel targets on behalf of Israeli policy is going to be an uphill struggle.

Originally published as ‘Kill zones’: Terrifying way Israel plans to beat Hamas in Gaza