Worrying sign that Israel has no clue how war will end

Israel’s government has promised its assault on Gaza will be the war to end all wars – but there’s one fundamental issue.

ANALYSIS

Israel’s government has promised its assault on Gaza will be a war to end all wars. But it admits it doesn’t know what that end will look like.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week declared his goal was to “completely defeat the murderous enemy and guarantee our existence”.

He attempted to channel the popular British World War II leader, Winston Churchill, by proclaiming: “We will fight and not retreat. We will fight on land, at sea and in the air. We will destroy the enemy above ground and below ground. We will fight, and we will win.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared his goal was to ‘completely defeat the murderous enemy and guarantee our existence’.

His need to react to the murderous October 7 surprise attack by Hamas on civilians is undeniable. But his means of doing so has left many international affairs analysts wondering – just how many times can you use the same failed tactic and still expect it to succeed?

“Our responsibility now is to enter Gaza, go to the places where Hamas organises, operates, plans and launches,” Israel’s Defense Forces Chief Herzi Halevi told local media. “To hit them severely everywhere, every commander, every operative, and to destroy infrastructure. In one word – to win.”

It’s the same strategy as the Arab-Israeli war of 1947, the Six-Day War of 1967, the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the First Intifada of 1987, the Second Intifada of 2000, the 2006 Lebanon War, the 2008 Gaza War, and the 2012 assault on Gaza.

The perpetual lack of an endgame is not lost on former Israeli Prime Minister and army chief Ehud Barak.

“We know from experience that our universal support will erode very quickly, and the legitimacy of the whole operation will be under question,” he said in an interview with Foreign Policy. “Lastly, even if we accomplish our goal of removing Hamas’s physical infrastructure and governing capabilities in the Gaza Strip, we do not intend to stay there for the next 10 or 20 years. So who takes the torch from us?”

War without end

An opposition member of Netanyahu’s new “unity” war cabinet, Benny Gantz, is a former military chief of staff. He’s told the Israeli public to brace for a war lasting many months – and probably years.

Barak agrees. “Even if it develops into a full-scale regional conflict with Hezbollah, which has 10 times more rockets and missiles, or if the West Bank or Golan Heights are involved, Israel is still stronger. It’s not an existential threat. But it will take more time, more losses, and more friction with our supporters in the world.”

But to what ends?

“Israeli officials have reportedly told the Biden administration that they haven’t engaged in any serious post-conflict planning,” says Hussein Ibish, an academic at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “That’s probably because none of their options is good and, despite a plethora of fantastical proposals, nobody is going to step in to bear the burden of Israel’s impossible dilemma or, put more simply, clean up its mess.”

Israel occupied the Gaza Strip in 1967. It only withdrew – and pulled out its illegal settlers – in 2007. Hamas has governed the enclave’s two million Palestinian residents ever since. However, Israel has maintained what is essentially a blockade over its border crossings, air and sea approaches and communications.

Israel’s hope was Shia Islamic Hamas would spend its strength in divisive competition with the occupied West Bank’s Sunni Islam Palestinian Authority. But things didn’t go to plan.

And Netanyahu – one of the primary sources of the Hamas strategy – is facing deep anger from among his own people. In response, he’s attempting to divert political embarrassment into a spiritual crusade.

“This will be a victory of good over evil, of light over darkness, of life over death,” he proclaimed in an October 29 address. “In this war, we will stand steadfast, more united than ever – certain in the justice of our cause. This is the mission of our lives. This is also the mission of my life.”

My empire of dirt

“The infrastructure of the rockets, the munitions depot, the training sites, the offices, the communication centres are all targets we will destroy,” says Barak.

“This will make it impossible for Hamas to run the Gaza Strip … which leaves the question of who to pass control to?”

It’s a question being asked the world over.

“When this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next … There’s no going back to the status quo as it stood on October 6,” says US President Joe Biden. But the only vision of that future he had to offer was one where any Israeli annexation of Gaza would be “a big mistake”.

Barak holds out hope for international intervention.

“It’s probably possible right now to have a multinational force, if not led by Egypt, then by some international force, backed by the Arab League and a UN Security Council resolution, to help bring back the Palestinian Authority to Gaza and help them financially develop what they need, in terms of power, water, and make it a normal place,” he states.

But international affairs analysts aren’t so confident.

They argue convincing the UN to take up the poisoned chalice of administering a ruined Gaza – most likely against insurgency from deeply entrenched Hamas fighters – is an unlikely prospect.

The Palestinian Authority is widely regarded among its own people as weak, corrupt – and a puppet of Israel.

Egypt has made it clear it has no intention to accept Palestinians forced out of their homes by Israel. Nor does it wish to get heavily involved in yet another reconstruction effort.

And the rest of the Arab world doesn’t want to be seen as adding any legitimacy to Israel’s aggressive policies.

Eternal struggle

“Time is not on Israel’s side,” argue Harvard University Belfer Center international affairs analysts Niall Ferguson and Jay Mens. “International support is already waning, and nowhere more than in the Arab world. Egypt and Jordan, Israel’s most important security partners in the region, have already accused Israel of planning the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”

Israel is doing little to allay these fears.

Knesset member Ariel Kallner took to social media early in the campaign to declare: “Right now, one goal: Nakba! A Nakba that will overshadow the Nakba of 48.”

He was referring to the forced eviction of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from their homes during the post-UN Partition Plan war.

But Israeli settlers in the West Bank have since taken up his battle cry: “You have a last opportunity to escape to Jordan. Afterwards, we’ll drive you away by force from our Holy Land that God dedicated to us.”

Israel tacitly allowed 9000 settlers to establish themselves among the two million Palestinians of the occupied Gaza Strip before the 2007 withdrawal. And it’s actively growing the 450,000 living in illegal outposts among the three million Palestinians of the occupied West Bank.

But annexing Gaza would force Israel to take on the enormous task of reconstruction. And among the Palestinians attempting to survive among the rubble, a new generation of Hamas recruits is likely to arise. Just like the last time.

“I’m confident the only viable vision for the future of Israel is a two-state solution,” says Barak. “But the (Netanyahu) government in Israel thinks differently. They want to do whatever they can to block the option of a two-state solution. They are an extremist, right-wing, racist, Messianic party.”