Murray River: 80mm of rain forecast for Upper Murray at weekend
The Murray River set to reach major flood level at Albury next week. See how much rain is forecast above Hume Dam.
The Murray River at Albury is expected to be in major flood early next week with daily releases increasing from 75,000 to 95,000 megalitres from nearby Hume Dam.
The Murray Darling Basin Authority has responded to the “potential for a large rainfall event generating significant inflows” from Sunday when another burst of heavy rain is forecast above the major storage.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting between 50 to 80mm of rain at Corryong in the Upper Murray on Sunday followed by another possible 20mm on Monday.
Releases from Hume Dam were increased to 75,000 megalitres per day on November 2 and were increased again to 85,000 megalitres a day today.
Later in the day, the MDBA announced releases would be increased to 95,000 megalitres per day.
MDBA river management executive director Andrew Reynolds said “further increases are likely”.
“Our current priority is to generate additional airspace in Hume Dam ahead of the rain event, while minimising the impact of increased releases on communities downstream of the dam,” he said.
“The river at Albury exceeded the moderate flood level (4.9m) and is now falling slowly.
“The increased releases this morning are expected to see river levels rise, but remain below the peak observed last week.
“Further increases in the release rate may see river levels exceed those experienced last week.”
Hume Dam is presently 96 per cent full with 112GL of airspace.
Since May, the MDBA has released 4780GL from Hume Dam to mitigate flooding in the Murray River, the equivalent of 1.6 times the volume of the huge storage.
Downstream at Corowa, Yarrawonga and Tocumwal the moderate flooding has also been experienced.
Federation Council mayor Pat Bourke said its council offices in Corowa were off-limits due to the flooding.
“The most affected are caravan parks and motels along the river,” he said.
“The season has been so consistent where we’re basically getting rain and reasonable amounts of rain weekly.
“Everything is chockers.”
Cr Bourke lives at Urana in southern NSW and he said Lake Urana was inching towards capacity.
“There are 2100 square kilometres of catchment area that comes to Urana and that affects Lockhart, Henty Culcairn, The Rock, even back to Boree Creek.
“The whole system gets choked.”
The council has advised residents to undertake only emergency or essential travel within the council area at this time due to the poor state of the rural road network with harvest approaching.
The Murray River at Corowa peaked at 7.55m on November 5.
PREVIOUS COVERAGE
Farmers and towns downstream of Hume Dam are busily making preparations for the peak of the flood in the Murray River at least equal the size of its last big flood in 2016.
At 4.30pm on Wednesday, the Murray River at Albury was nudging the major flood level of 5.50 metres and at Corowa it was a similar story with the river level on the rise at 6.50 metres.
It follows heavy rain in the headwaters of the Murray River and the Murray Darling Basin Authority increasing releases in the last 48 hours.
Robert Pearce, a mixed farmer near Corowa, said landowners’ worst fears were about to be realised.
“The reality is the weir is going to end up nearly full in the next few days,” he said.
“Instead of having six per cent airspace they might only have one or two.
“If the weir had been at 98 per cent two days ago all hell would have broken loose.
“We’re still on a knife edge.”
Mr Pearce said the worst of the flooding was due to hit Corowa before the weekend with stock and machinery already moved from near the swollen river.
“It’s been a unique situation this year,” he said.
“Dartmouth was almost certainly going to spill, Hume was always going to spill and it’s been a wetter year than normal.
“We could all see what was going to happen.”
Federation Council, which has its offices on the banks of the Murray River at Corowa, began relocating staff and services to another area in town on Wednesday.
The council has also shut a caravan park and aquatic centre it runs on the river.
Corowa-Rutherglen Football-Netball Club has also started sandbagging its clubrooms in a bid to keep floodwaters out.
“They’ve only let open the gates and there is a lot of water coming down so it could end up higher than 2016,” Federation mayor Pat Bourke said.
“We’re in for some very nervous times over the next week.
“The whole system is saturated.”
Cr Bourke lives at Urana where there were major concerns about the upcoming harvest.
“Traditionally we would be two and a half weeks from starting harvest,” he said.
“We need that time for things to dry out.
“We’re on the brink of success or disaster really.
“If it doesn’t stop raining, crops will rot, but if we got a break there is still an opportunity.”
EARLIER COVERAGE
Major flooding is expected at Albury for the first time since 2016 after heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday.
The Murray Darling Basin Authority increased releases from Hume Dam to 75GL/day on Tuesday, up from 50GL/day after inflow peaked overnight at 100GL/day.
Executive director of river management Andrew Reynolds said further increases were likely with a renewed inflow peak expected late on Tuesday.
“The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting further rainfall over North East Victoria on Tuesday before conditions begin to ease,” he said.
At 9am on Tuesday, Hume Dam was 96 per cent full, with 124GL of airspace.
At Bungowannah, downstream of Albury, mixed farmer Andy Watson said he was preparing for one third of his farm to go underwater on Tuesday night and expected to be cut off by floodwaters for at least a week.
Hay and silage on the property would be inundated but stock had already been moved to higher ground, he said.
70-80mm of rain fell in Murray River headwaters, and 50mm at Albury in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday.
In the Upper Murray, Tintaldra recorded 27mm in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday to take the weekly total to 85mm.
“We’ve got country we haven’t had cattle on for at least two months,” Tintaldra beef producer Al Mackinnon said.
“The worst part about it is that it has to go somewhere.
“It’s going to end up down the river unfortunately.”
In the Murrumbidgee catchment, 50mm fell at Burrinjuck Dam, 45mm at Wagga Wagga and 28mm at Gundagai in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday.
NSW State Emergency Services Gundagai commander Ross Tout said flooding was predicted to peak at 9.5m at Gundagai, higher than the previous three floods that had washed through the area in the past four months.
At 9.5m the flood would get “close” to infrastructure, but the Gungagai township would not have “severe problems” unless the river height hit 10m, he said.
Authorities were holding back large releases from Burrinjuck Dam as the Murrumbidgee and Tumut rivers swelled on Tuesday.
“They’re letting 55,000ML/day out of Burrinjuck and 110,000ML is coming in, so it is filling up very, very quickly,” Mr Tout said.
Elders Gundagai livestock agent Jake Smith said farmers were “frantically shifting livestock off river flats” at Gundagai.
The biggest challenge for farmers would be transporting stock with local roads closed, he said.
Elders Holbrook stock and station agent Phil Gledhill, who services clients from Albury to Wagga Wagga, said he had been forced to cancel stock transport until flooding subsided and damaged roads were repaired.
Further north in the state, 76mm fell at Orange, 54mm at Cootamundra, 80mm at Goulburn, and 88mm at Scone.
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