La Nina weather pattern confirmed by Bureau of Meteorology
After months of anticipation, a wetter-than-average La Nina weather pattern is here — and it’s going to be sticking around, for a while at least.
IT’S official — a wetter-than-average La Nina weather phenomenon is here and is expected to stick around for at least the next three months.
In its fortnightly climate update today, the Bureau of Meteorology said it had upgraded its El Nino-Southern Oscillation status to La Nina — indicating the wetter-than-average weather pattern had established in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
In making the call, the BOM said all surveyed international climate models indicating the La Nina would persist until at least January next year.
“While models agree La Nina will continue well into summer 2020–21, around half the models predict a strong event, while three of eight models suggest moderate strength,” the BOM said.
“Overall, models do not currently anticipate this event will be as strong as the La Nina of 2010–12, which was one of the four strongest La Niñas on record. The strength of La Niña impacts on Australia are often related to the strength of the event.”
The BOM said central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures exceeded La Nina thresholds (0.8C below average) and atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index, trade winds and cloud, were also at La Nina levels.
“In the Indian Ocean, the latest values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index have again gone into negative dipole territory,” it said.
“Five of the six surveyed models indicate the IOD will be negative for October, and three models continue negative IOD values into November.
The BOM said both a La Nina and negative IOD typically increased the chance of above-average rainfall across much of Australia during spring.
Above-average summer rainfall is also typical across eastern Australia during La Niña.
The BOM said current climate outlooks indicated the remainder of 2020 would be wetter than average across the eastern two thirds of Australia.
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