How livestock producers are dealing with El Nino predictions

Predictions of an El Nino event sit at 50/50, but have proved more than enough to spook some livestock producers.

Weather predictions of a 50:50 chance of an El Nino event are sapping confidence from livestock markets.

While there remains an equal chance of an average season compared to drier than normal, livestock producers appear spooked by the outlook.

It is playing out in prime and store markets alike, with the tiny crowd at Wodonga’s store cattle sale last week a reflection of just how nervous people are, both about the season and prices.

An El Nino event would lead to a significant dry weather event. Picture: Himanshu Sharma/AFP

Corcoran Parker auctioneer Leigh McEvoy said cattle values at the centre were “solid enough” last week but some producers may be wary of restocking given the weather outlooks.

“What I do know is that if it rains, and we get 25mm or more, then we could find prices could be a whole different story,” Mr McEvoy said.

“We have already had a bit of rain and if it keeps going, the markets will only go from strength to strength.”

Prime markets are also seeing lifts in certain categories of stock, including older breeding females like cows and aged ewes.

Meat and Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said the organisation did not track producer sentiment or have any way of measuring it but were intending to try to do this in the future.

But he said the switch from La Nina to El Nino predictions could affect stock flow into prime sales.

“We are seeing bigger yardings of stock because large areas of the country that have had above average rainfall for three years naturally drives improvements in numbers on farm,” Mr Atkinson said.

“Older or non performing females will be culled first so newer, more productive genetics can be introduced and retained in the herds/flocks across the country.

“This naturally drives down the age of the breeding ewes and cows, happens in any given year and is considered normal.”

But if the predictions of an El Nino are wrong and there is widespread rainfall, Mr Atkinson said there would be an effect on the availability of supply, though not as much as in the past few years.

”Because of the growth in both cattle and sheep numbers, we don’t expect supply to tighten like it did last year, because the increase in available stock will negate this,” Mr Atkinson said.