BOM issues El Nino watch, warns of warmer temperatures, reduced rainfall

The wet and cool La Nina season has come to an end and a new climate driver has emerged. Here’s what’s in store for the state for the remainder of 2023.

Hot and dry conditions could be on the cards for the remainder of 2023 thanks to a climate driver known as El Nino.

The Bureau of Meteorology announced the wet and cool La Nina season has concluded and declared a 50 per cent chance, two times the normal likelihood, of El Nino conditions developing throughout the country.

El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and typically brings reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures and increased frost risk.

Increased fire danger can also be expected in Australia’s south east.

#LaNiña has ended, and the Pacific Ocean is now in a neutral phase – neither La Niña nor El Niño. The Bureau has issued an El Niño WATCH which means there's around a 50% chance El Niño will develop in 2023. Learn more: https://t.co/raJvaHEx6spic.twitter.com/xa8EbJrE7v

— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) March 14, 2023

Concerns have already been raised for South Australia’s agricultural industry.

Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist David Wilson said there is a chance of a “serious agricultural deficiency” by the end of the Autumn season due to the expected below average rainfall.

“There is a 74 per cent chance most of South Australia won’t exceed medium rainfall,” he said.

It comes as Adelaide recorded the highest temperature across Australia’s capital cities over the 2022 – 23 summer.

Adelaide hit 41C on December 27, with Melbourne recording the second highest temperature of 40.5C on February 27.

Australia’s climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C from 1910–2021 with Southern Australia experiencing a 10 to 20 per cent reduction in rainfall during April to October in recent decades.