Forecasts for significant falls in the next week could save winter crops

It has been a dry start to spring, but things could be about to change according to two key forecasts. See the latest.

Southeast Australian farmers are pinning their hopes on rain forecasts in the next week as crops and pastures come under pressure from a long dry period.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s eight-day forecast shows large areas of Victoria are expected to receive 15-25mm of rain, with the Mallee slightly less at 10-15mm.

While rain is forecast, it will be too late to turn around frost-damaged crops hit earlier this month.

BoM’s forecast comes just days after meteorologist Jane Bunn told growers at the Henty Field Days a La Nina weather pattern could be on the way.

“We now have seven out of eight weather models suggesting we will go into La Nina,” she said.

“This tells you, not yet, but in the months ahead we are heading into that La Nina which actively pushes that tropical moisture towards us.

“In the October to December outlook, better or above average rain will be widespread in the eastern and central parts of the country.

“We will have moisture to play with but only if we have low pressure systems to move through to turn it into rain.

“Autumn through to spring will have a heap of moisture coming our way as we come out of the (blocking) high-pressure problem.”

Ms Bunn’s comments align with the latest three-month outlook from the BOM which said there was a 60-80 per cent chance there would be above average rain for large parts of the eastern two-thirds of Australia, from October to December.

But for some areas, the rain might come too late.

Many crops are sitting on a knife’s edge throughout Victoria’s key cropping zone following the dry season, frosts and then damaging winds.

And livestock producers are in the midst of a selldown, with sales from the region up 15 per cent on normal after poor pasture growth.

AWN Wimmera manager Wayne Driscoll said rain this week was unlikely to rescue many crops in the region.

“Conditions are very average here, just about not recoverable in a number of areas,” Mr Driscoll said.

“Cereals have been hit very hard, but some canolas are OK with their tap root system.

“The eastern Wimmera is a bit better, but we really are in a bit of strife in the west and southern areas.

“In the northern Wimmera, not too far above Warracknabeal, they are close to cutting (crops for hay).”

Mr Driscoll the grazing value of crops was questionable in many areas and any excess or older stock were being sold. A lack of run-off meant dam water levels were also an issue.

“Many people have been feeding stock since January,” Mr Driscoll said.

“Some will keep feeding but others won’t entertain it at all, it will depend on prices for lambs but at the moment we are seeing people clearing really light lambs.

“This is up there with one of the worst (seasons).”