Basin Plan shortfall: Murray Darling Basin warning

The federal government will fall up to 315 gigalitres short of its Murray Darling Basin Plan target, according to an independent audit.

“We’re banging our heads against a brick wall” in trying to deliver 605 gigalitres of Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism projects, says Opposition water spokeswoman Perin Davey.

The Albanese Government will fall up to 315 gigalitres short of its Murray Darling Basin Plan target, according to an independent audit commissioned by its own Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

The government extended this year’s June 30 deadline on the states delivering 37 Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism projects to the end of 2026, in the hope of recovering 605GL from the resultant supply and efficiency works.

But Aurecon’s recently released audit warns just 10 projects have been completed and that of the remaining 27, one had been withdrawn, another would deliver no water, “10 are likely to be delivered in full, four delivered in part, and eight unlikely to be delivered by December 31, 2026”.

Unless more effort was made on accelerating projects Aurecon expected the shortfall would be towards the higher end of a “range of 190 to 315 GL/y”.

Federal Water Minister Tanya Plibersek’s office said the government had “provided Basin states with more time, more options, more accountability and more money to reduce the shortfall”, giving them until June next year to withdraw, amend or propose any new SDLAM projects, but left the budget unchanged at $1.4 billion.

Federal Opposition water spokeswoman Perin Davey said any shortfall in delivering the SDLAM target was set to trigger more federal buyouts, in markets where the government was already seeking 450GL to boost environmental flows on top of the 2129GL already recovered.

“The (SDLAM) funding is inadequate … and we’re banging our heads against a brick wall,” Senator Davey said. “We need a comprehensive rethink of what we’re trying to do.”

Analysis of eight projects that Aurecon states are unlikely to be delivered, shows they account for 160GL of supply and efficiency measures – the largest of which is the Menindee Lakes reconfiguration.

NSW has completed just one 25GL SDLAM project to date – the Koodrook-Perricoota forest flood enhancement project, while Victoria has delivered 125GL and South Australia 57.5GL.

Ms Plibersek recently cut a $115 million deal with her NSW counterpart Rose Jackson to deliver five new SDLAM projects, which deliver just 45GL in total.

The states have also failed to broker flood easements over about 6000 properties along the Murray, Goulburn and Murrumbidgee Rivers, which are regarded as key SDLAM projects that enable the delivery of environmental flows.

Aurecon highlighted that “since 2021 the delivery of SDLAM projects has been affected by lengthy approval processes, flooding, Covid-19, and shortage of resources”.

Costs have also blown out, with the consultants reporting “in regional and remote areas, competition with mining, transport and building sectors, as well as higher margins to manage risk (resource personnel/trades/labour, site risks and construction inputs) increase costs of infrastructure delivery”.

Aurecon found the cost of simply constructing a concrete weir had increased by about 20 per cent, from 2022 and 2024.

While federal SDLAM funding is capped at $1.4 billion, Aurecon reported it would cost up to $1.2 billion just to remove constraints on river flows in South Australia.

Aurecon also warned “access to specialist expertise in ecology, hydrology, hydraulics, fluvial geomorphology, integrated modelling, data analytics, and robust decision-making have been identified as a key risk over the next few years”.

A FULL LIST OF THE SDLAM PROJECTS CAN BE FOUND HERE