Ukraine ceasefire talks fuel uncertainty over Australian grain and oilseed markets

As global tensions rise, the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks have added another level of uncertainty to Australia’s markets. Here’s the latest.

Australia’s grain and oilseed prices have taken a hit amid the unfolding Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, while US President Donald Trump’s trade war is driving uncertainty in the market.

According to Cargill, canola is currently priced at $750 a tonne at Geelong; prices were as high as $810 10 days ago.

Canola at Kwinana in Western Australia is currently $784 a tonne; earlier this month, it was $802. And farmers have reported being quoted prices much lower from other competing traders.

Agricultural commentators and farmers alike say the market is largely entering unknown territory amid escalating global political tensions.

Ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia have the potential for large amounts of wheat, corn, and canola to enter the market. Meanwhile, though no immediate US tariffs are in place for Australian canola or wheat, the ripple effects from Mr Trump’s tariffs on competing countries such as Canada are dampening prices.

Rhys Turton of York Western Australia is keeping an eye on world events and the flow-on effects for grain prices. Picture: AAP Image/Richard Wainwright

Western Australia farmer and GrainGrowers chairman Rhys Turton said prices had dropped like a rock.

He said that between tariffs and international events including the ceasefire talk, a lot of instability flowed into Australian markets.

“It has made our market nervous,” he said.

“But it is also very much unknown.”

Mr Turton said the general apprehension and unpredictability was evident throughout the entire agricultural sector.

“Canola has been sitting as low as it has been for a long time; on Wednesday, it was quoted as low as $675,” he said.

Andrew Russell of Rutherglen.

Rutherglen farmer Andrew Russell said recent global events had made everyone a little nervous.

But he said he wouldn’t lose sleep over the market impact and imminent uncertainty, noting things could turn around really quickly.

“What is happening with the Trump administration is not new,” he said.

However, Mr Russell said rising input costs made it difficult for Australian farmers to consider any further price cuts.

“We can do our budgets and forward plan, but at the end of the day, we have no idea what we are going to get for our commodities,” he said.

Ryan Milgate of Minyip says farmers are experiencing uncertainty. Picture: Yuri Kouzmin

Victorian Farmers Federation grains council chairman and Wimmera farmer Ryan Milgate agreed with the sentiment that forward pricing was unknown.

“This is new ground; nobody really knows what is happening here, and there is uncertainty,” he said.

“Our input costs are still sky high and what we are seeing with tariffs and overseas politics is having a huge impact.”

Despite the concerns, Mr Milgate said that for the upcoming season, most Victorian farmers would look to indicators such as soil moisture and stick to their regular rotations where possible.

Episode 3 analyst Andrew Whitelaw said canola prices had already been impacted by overseas events.

“The driver was initially tariffs from Trump, but now there are tariffs from China,” he said.

“It is important to note that this is a very fluid environment, things change very quickly, and things could get worse or better in a couple of days.”