Victorian state election 2022: Regional seats to watch

With fewer than 100 days until the November state election, political watchers will be keeping a close eye on these regional seats.

Battlelines are being drawn up across regional Victoria as the countdown to November’s state election hits the double-digits.

Victorians will go to the polls in less than 100 days’ time on November 24.

Will Labor’s Daniel Andrews win a third term, securing his statue in Treasury Place, having served 1000 days as premier? Or will the Liberals’ Matthew Guy, back for a second tilt, reverse his fortunes from 2018 and be Spring St’s comeback kid?

And there’s a third possibility — will neither secure an outright majority?

Whatever the outcome, Labor and the Coalition will need to win (or at least have their opponents lose) these key regional seats on election night 2022:

Morwell MP Russell Northe. Picture: David Geraghty

MORWELL

Incumbent: Russell Northe (retiring)

Key towns: Traralgon, Morwell, Toongabbie, Churchill

Regional Victoria is accustomed to three-cornered contests.

Four viable contenders in the race? Sure, it sometimes, if rarely, happens.

But a five-corner contest?

That was the state of play in Morwell at the 2018 election.

Former Napthine government minister Russell Northe was a leading light for the Victorian National Party, but personal circumstances associated with gambling lead to him treading his own path as an independent.

There was an expectation he wouldn’t run in 2018 after the Nats separation the year before, but the former football hero defied expectations, throwing his hat into the ring for fourth election tilt.

Four challengers took Northe on — Labor Party candidate Mark Richards, Liberal Party candidate Dale Harriman, National Party candidate Sheridan Bond and high profile ex-senator Ricky Muir, who flew the flag for the Shooters Party.

Richards achieved a primary vote of more than 34 per cent with Northe a distant second on 19.56 per cent.

But as the vote count rolled on in the days following the 2018 election, it became clear than Northe would be heading west — to Spring St again for a fourth term.

Coalition and minor party preferences mainly flowed his way, handing him a two-party preferred margin of 1.8 per cent.

Northe isn’t running this time with Gippsland doctor Kate Maxfield the Labor candidate and Traralgon plumber Martin Cameron endorsed as the Nats pick.

Ripon MP Louise Staley. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

RIPON

Incumbent: Louise Staley (Liberal)

Key towns: Maryborough, Ararat, Beaufort, Stawell

During the 2018 election campaign, the red and blue campaign buses would rattle up and down the Western Highway with almost comic frequency.

The destination was Ripon — the ultimate Spring St swing seat.

Featuring traditionally Labor towns such as Ararat, Maryborough and Stawell interspersed with dozens of Coalition districts, only a handful of votes separate the major parties in the central Victorian constituency.

Daniel Andrews’ and Matthew Guy’s regular Ripon rendezvous paid off — to a degree.

Liberal MP Louise Staley increased her primary by 6 per cent on her 2014 inaugural result, no doubt helped by incumbency and the lack of a Nats challenger.

High-profile Labor candidate Sarah de Santis also increased her primary by 3 per cent.

It was a photo finish: Staley on 38.93 per cent and de Santis on 38.15 per cent.

Preferences played a crucial role, pushing Staley across the finish line with a cigarette paper margin of 0.02 per cent — just 15 votes the difference.

Bass MP Jordan Crugnale.

BASS

Incumbent: Jordan Crugnale (Labor)

Key towns: Wonthaggi, Cowes, Kilcunda, Lang Lang

In the weeks leading up to the 2018 state election, few political observers were keeping an eye on Bass.

Why would they?

Covering the geographic crescent that encircles Western Port Bay, Bass was the constituency of erstwhile speaker Ken Smith.

World-weary Smith, you may recall, had a long-running feud with Spring St’s enfant terrible Geoff Shaw back in the heady days of 2013 when the Baillieu Government hung by a thread.

Shaw managed to roll Smith as speaker and Baillieu as premier, with both men ultimately quitting politics at the 2014 poll and the voters of Frankston making Shaw’s retirement plans for him at the same poll.

Smith was replaced as Liberal MP by Brian Paynter, on a reduced majority.

But the 2018 ‘Danslide’ (and a redistribution during his first term) swept Paynter out of office four years later.

Labor MP Jordan Crugnale holds the seat on a margin of 2.4 per cent, one of the ALP’s most narrowly held constituencies this November.

Mildura MP Ali Cupper.

MILDURA

Incumbent: Ali Cupper (independent)

Key towns: Hopetoun, Mildura, Ouyen, Robinvale

At a federal level, the Mallee is always an easy electorate to predict — it has stayed wedded to the National Party since the Menzies era.

At a state level, its electoral history has been far more eclectic.

Back in the 1980s, when the Liberal and National parties weren’t playing happy families, it was a battle ground for the conservative side of politics.

After veteran Nats MP Milton Whiting retired at the 1988 poll, Craig Bildstien unexpectedly picked up the seat for the Libs.

Two terms later and Bildstien lost the seat to independent Russell Savage, mainly over the axing of the Vinelander train service.

A generation later, Mildura continued to surprise.

Ali Cupper first ran as the Labor candidate at the 2010 election, picking up a primary of 15 per cent. But ditching the party brand has proved fruitful.

She pushed past 20 per cent at the 2014 election and by 2018, gave the Nats one of their biggest election night whacks — ousting veteran MP Peter Crisp.

Ms Cupper is running for a second term, this time with incumbency on her side.

Swan Hill mayor Jade Benham has been endorsed as the National Party candidate and police officer Paul Matheson has been selected as the Liberal candidate.

South Barwon MP Darren Cheeseman. Picture: Alan Barber

SOUTH BARWON

Incumbent: Darren Cheeseman

Key towns: Torquay, Moriac, Belmont, Grovedale

Australia’s politicians love G-Town — well, they say they do — and will wrap themselves in a blue-and-white scarf at Kardinia Park to prove it.

That’s because the nation’s 12th-largest city has an electoral fault line running right along its southern flank, straight through suburbs such as Belmont and Grovedale.

At a federal level, Corangamite was Victoria’s must-win constituency in the lead up to the May election, with former PM Scott Morrison making pit stops at a retirement village and a new housing estate to win over voters.

In November, the South Barwon electorate, which overlaps Corangamite, will be similarly close fought.

Labor MP Darren Cheeseman used to be Corangamite’s representative, until his 2013 federal loss and made a move to Spring Street at the 2018 poll.

He ousted Liberal MP Andrew Katos, who is aiming for a comeback in 2022.

One to watch in the red-blue race for victory on November 26.