Matthew Guy and a history of last-minute leadership switches

Will the Victorian Liberal Party change leaders four months out from the November election? It has been done before.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

And desperation is certainly pervading the opposition benches.

With an election less than four months away, will the Victorian Liberal Party switch leaders?

Matthew Guy has endured a horror fortnight of publicity.

In the past few weeks, Guy’s chief-of-staff Mitch Catlin resigned after leaked emails showed a proposal for a party donor to top up Catlin’s salary.

Several staff members have subsequently left.

The word on Spring Street is further troublesome news is set to coincide with next sitting week, which kicks off this coming Tuesday.

The leadership chatter has started.

Health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier and former shadow attorney-general John Pesutto have been mentioned as potential replacements, although the former is in the upper house and the latter isn’t in parliament at all.

But would replacing Guy with a new Liberal leader revive the opposition’s fortunes?

State political history says suggests its a mixed bag …

2008: Troy Buswell resigns as WA Opposition Leader.

PERTH-ONALITY CHANGE

On two occasions in living memory, political Perth-onalities have pulled the plug on a flailing opposition leader, as the clock ticked down to a state election.

In January 2008, Troy Buswell replaced Paul Omodei as WA Liberal leader.

While Omodei’s time at the top was forgettable, Buswell’s was more than memorable.

As soon as Buswell was installed in the leadership, questions flew thick and fast about his conduct around women, as well as his sobriety in parliament.

Allegations of ‘chair sniffing’ and ‘squirrel gripping’ characterised the six-month Buswell experiment.

American talk show hosts even joked about Perth’s parliamentary pantomime.

All seemed lost.

Colin Barnett with wife Lyn on WA’s 2008 election night.

Then into the void marched veteran Colin Barnett.

Seven weeks after resuming the opposition leadership, Barnett was premier after a decisive election win.

Victoria has also seen a number of election-eve leadership changes in the past four decades.

Frank Wilkes (left) on the day he was replaced as Labor leader by John Cain (right).

CAIN REPLACES WILKES: 1981

The son of a past premier, John Cain jnr was seen as a future leader of Victorian Labor from the day he entered parliament in 1976 as the member for Bundoora.

The uncharismatic Frank Wilkes brought Labor close to victory in 1979 but MPs desired change in late 1981.

Within six months of becoming opposition leader, Cain won the 1982 election - the first Labor premier since his father nearly three decades beforehand.

Jeff Kennett back as opposition leader, 1991.

KENNETT REPLACES BROWN: 1991

Jeff Kennett is remembered for his transformative tenure as premier in the 1990s.

But in the 1980s, he couldn’t take an electoral trick losing twice to John Cain.

The Victorian Libs dumped Jeff in 1989, for Gippsland MP Alan Brown.

But Kennett returned the favour, 18 months out from the 1992 election, which he won in a landslide.

John Brumby and Steve Bracks in March 1999, on the day Bracks replaced Brumby as Victorian Labor leader.

BRACKS REPLACES BRUMBY: 1999

Kennett was seemingly unstoppable and set to win a third term against the lacklustre John Brumby.

Six months out from the 1999 election, Victorian Labor MPs wanted change and Brumby resigned in favour of the former Ballarat school teacher.

Bracks went on to surprise political pundits and bookmakers, bringing Labor to the cusp of victory then securing the support of three independent MPs to form minority government.

Robert Doyle and new deputy Phil Honeywood in August 2002 after defeating Denis Napthine for the Victorian Liberal leadership.

2002: DOYLE REPLACES NAPTHINE

The next electoral cycle, it was the Victorian Liberal party’s turn.

Robert Doyle replaced Denis Napthine only three months out from the 2002 poll.

Labor under Bracks defeated Doyle’s Coalition in the biggest Spring Street landslide in modern times.

Opposition leader Zak Kirkup concedes defeat at his election night function on the final day of Western Australia's state election. Photo: Tony McDonough

THE PERTH PIROUETTE

Changing leaders only months out from an election is a form of political Russian roulette.

Maybe a ‘Perth pirouette’ is a better turn of phrase.

Barnett pulled off the Perth pirouette with Nureyev-esque nous in 2008.

But last year’s repeat attempt in WA will give Victoria’s Libs pause for thought.

With the swagger of a real estate agent, 33-year-old Zak Kirkup swooped in to become WA opposition leader only months out from the 2021 poll.

To say young Zak was unsuccessful would be an understatement.

Incumbent Labor premier Mark McGowan won a thumping victory - the WA Libs now have only two seats in the 59-seat state parliament.

So that’s the question facing Liberal MPs as they hurtle towards the November state election.

To Perth pirouette or not to pirouette?

They could land on their feet with Barnett-style bravado.

Or it could be an absolute Kirkup.