Victorian election 2022: Seat by seat snapshot of regional Victoria
Dan Andrews won a resounding third term over the weekend; take a seat-by-seat look at regional Victoria’s updated political landscape.
Dan Andrews won a resounding third term over the weekend, picking up Ripon for Labor and closing in on Bass. The Weekly Times takes a seat-by-seat look at regional Victoria.
Bass
(Labor 0.4%)
With counting still taking place, Labor MP Jordan Crugnale is narrowly ahead of Liberal candidate Aaron Brown. Ms Crugnale won nearly 33 per cent of the primary vote, with Mr Brown on close to 29 per cent, followed by National Party candidate Brett Tessari on 15 per cent. At the time of publication, Ms Crugnale had a lead of 225 votes but the winner will be determined later this week (or possibly next).
Ripon
(Labor 2.3%)
Labor candidate Martha Haylett is set to be one youngest MPs on Spring Street, on track to defeat shadow treasurer Louise Staley. Ms Haylett, a former adviser to Premier Dan Andrews, topped the primary vote with nearly 39 per cent to Ms Staley on 37 per cent. A redistribution meant Ripon was no longer regional Victoria’s most marginal heading into the 2022 race but with a narrow 2.3 per cent buffer, is sure to be a 2026 battleground.
Shepparton
(National 5.2%)
A shock result on election night, former mayor Kim O’Keefe toppled popular independent MP Suzanna Sheed to win back Shepparton for the National Party. Ms Sheed made history in 2014 when she first won Shepparton, once held by Country Party leader Peter Ross-Edwards and considered the jewel in the National Party crown. Ms O’Keefe topped the primary vote on more than 32 per cent, with Ms Sheed on nearly 30 per cent. Liberal candidate Cheryl Hammer, who had an impressive showing at the 2018 election, was unable to replicate her prior success, with a primary of about 21 per cent.
Mildura
(National 1.3%)
Outgoing independent MP Ali Cupper topped the primary vote count with a 34 per cent share, but faced challenging headwinds following a redistribution that pushed south into Donald and Charlton. Swan Hill MP Jade Benham won back the seat for the Nats after a four-year interregnum for the junior Coalition partner, winning nearly 26 per cent of first preferences.
Morwell
(National 5.1%)
The National Party are often lampooned in Spring Street circles for their reliance on local football personalities. But the formula paid off over the weekend, with Martin Cameron winning the seat for the Nats over Labor candidate Kate Maxfield. It wasn’t all bad news for Labor; Dr Maxfield topped the primary tally at 31 per cent, followed by Mr Cameron on nearly 24 per cent and Liberal candidate Dale Harriman on 15 per cent. Premier Dan Andrews made a final week campaign stop alongside Dr Maxfield, so expect to see her run again for the ALP in coming election cycles.
Benambra
(Liberal 1.1%)
Speaking of last-week campaign stops, outgoing opposition leader Matt Guy’s penultimate day pit stop in Wodonga paid off. Liberal MP Bill Tilley is back for another term in Benambra, fending off an impressive challenge from independent candidate Jacqui Hawkins. Mr Tilley scored more than 43 per cent of the vote but Ms Hawkins achieved a huge primary swing of 16 per cent to finish in second place. Benambra will again be a battleground in 2026, particularly in the event of a Tilley retirement.
South West Coast
(Liberal 8.2%)
Roma Britnell provided one of the few moments to be cheerful for the Liberal Party on election night. The Coalition frontbencher won 43 per cent of the primary vote, the best showing for the party since Denis Napthine’s retirement. Several independents contested the seat, including former journalist Carol Altmann who ran a well co-ordinated campaign, winning 15 per cent of the primary vote.
Eildon
(Liberal 6.7 per cent)
Just like Ms Britnell, Cindy McLeish showed the Liberal blokes how to win seats in a challenging night for the party. With a primary vote of more than 48 per cent, the former Liberal deputy leader came close to winning Eildon outright, with a sizeable eight per cent drop in the Labor vote – oddly – given it was a night of big wins for the ALP.
Polwarth
(Liberal 2.6%)
The seat of erstwhile Liberal frontbenchers Ian Smith and Terry Mulder used to be a Coalition lock. Following a recent redistribution, it’s now a swing seat. And boy, didn’t it swing on Saturday night. ABC election analyst Antony Green pointed to a potential upset victory by Labor candidate Hutch Hussein but pre-poll votes swung back to Liberal MP Richard Riordan. The Colac businessman is now one of several contenders for the Coalition leadership.
Eureka
(Labor 9.6%)
Popular Labor MP Michaela Settle topped the primary vote tally with more than 40 per cent, compared to Liberal candidate Paul Tatchell on nearly 33 per cent. The seat was previously known as Buninyong, encompassing Ballarat’s southern suburbs and the Midland Highway hinterland.
Lara
(Labor 16.7%)
A former staffer of sports minister John Eren, Labor candidate Ella George is heading to Spring Street as Lara’s new representative. The family violence policy worker won the primary vote outright, edging past the 50 per cent mark in what has long been one of the safest Labor seats in regional Victoria.
Lowan
(National 22.6%)
What Lara is to Labor, Lowan is to the Nats – a reliably safe bet. And it didn’t disappoint the team in bottle green on Saturday night. Deputy leader Emma Kealy won more than 60 per cent of the primary vote and has a colossal two-party preferred of 22.6 per cent.
Murray Plains
(National 23.7%)
Speaking of massive two-party preferred results, Peter Walsh has one of the safest on Spring Street. The Murray Plains MP says he will serve another four-year term as Nats leader, a period in which he’ll pass the age Ronald Reagan was when he entered the White House in 1980.
Wendouree
(Labor 13.7%)
Ballarat used to be a swing city in the 1980s and 90s – now its solidly Labor at both a state and federal level. Labor MP Juliana Addison nearly won the primary vote count outright on 49.8 per cent, with Liberal candidate Samantha McIntosh streets behind on 28 per cent.
Bellarine
(Labor 8.5%)
Held by former water minister Lisa Neville for two decades, Bellarine stays Labor despite boasting some of the wealthiest postcodes in the state. Former teacher Alison Marchant is one of Spring Street’s new faces, beating Liberal candidate Donnie Grigau and high-profile independent challenger Sarah Fenton.
Gippsland East
(National 24.2%)
Former sports minister Tim Bull has bested Nats leader Peter Walsh, now laying claim to the safest conservative margin on Spring Street. Even his primary vote tally was off the charts – 64.5 per cent. Former Motoring Enthusiast Party senator Ricky Muir ran for the Shooters Party and scored 5.5 per cent of first preferences.
Macedon
(Labor 9.5%)
Health Minister Mary Anne Thomas is one of the most influential figures in the Andrews Government. But that didn’t stop her from taking an electoral haircut over the weekend, with a 3.9 per cent swing towards the Libs. Still, at nearly 10 per cent two-party preferred, it’s a huge margin for the ALP in a seat that swung a long time ago.
Bendigo East
(Labor 9.9 per cent)
Like Macedon, Bendigo East followed the regional Victorian trend with slight swings away from Labor. Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan easily retained the seat for a seventh term, a four-year period in which she could possibly become the state leader.
Bendigo West
(Labor 15.4 per cent)
Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Maree Edwards is back for a fourth term tasked with keeping order in the lower house. The Labor MP’s primary vote slipped by seven per cent, reflecting a regional Victorian trend against the ALP that left all sitting MPs untroubled, given their sizeable margins.
Ovens Valley
(National 18.7 per cent)
Tim McCurdy had a horror 2018 campaign, under challenge from a charismatic independent and hitting the headlines for a court appearance. Happily for the Nats MP, his 2022 run was relatively uneventful, winning the primary vote outright on nearly 54 per cent.
South Barwon
(Labor 9.7 per cent)
With a near seven point swing to Labor, South Barwon is a snapshot of the ALP’s marginal seat success on Saturday night. Former federal MP Darren Cheeseman is back for another term on Spring Street, fending off an attempting comeback by former Liberal MP Andrew Katos.
Gippsland South
(National 16.7 per cent)
Nats MP Danny O’Brien had a relatively calm Saturday night, winning Gippsland South on primary votes. His Sunday was more eventful, floating the idea of a Coalition split, which earned a rebuke from the Nats leader.
Narracan
(Liberal 10.0%)
Following the death of National Party candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the Narracan election has failed and a special ballot will take place in the new year.
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