Victorian election 2022: Live count for the regions
As Labor celebrates a historic third term, Ag Minister Gayle Tierney and Animal Justice MP Andy Meddick are in danger of losing their upper house seats.
Final update – 11pm
Premier Daniel Andrews is poised to be Victoria’s longest-serving Labor premier, winning a third term for the ALP.
Picking up Ripon, Hastings and potentially Polwarth from the Liberal Party, Labor retained nearly all of its metropolitan seats from the 2018 “Danslide” election.
“Reforming giant and Labor icon Paul Keating once told me: ‘Son, leadership isn’t about doing what’s popular. Leadership is about doing what’s right,” the Premier said on Saturday night.
“The past three years have been incredibly challenging, we had to make some tough decisions.
“The fact that Victorians stuck together. We were united by our faith and care in each other (during the pandemic).
“Friends, hope always defeats hate. It was important we delivered to Victorians a positive and optimistic plan.”
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy conceded defeat at 10.50pm, earlier calling Mr Andrews to congratulate Labor on another landslide victory.
In a show of Coalition solidarity, state National Party leader Peter Walsh introduced Mr Guy ahead of his concession speech.
“The Coalition did well in regional Victoria. Shepparton with Kim O’Keefe, Mildura for the Nats. There’s a few wins for the Nats – Morwell as well,” he said.
“We know (the Coalition’s) time in the sun will come again.”
Mr Guy did not announce his resignation as Liberal leader, with Brad Battin and Ryan Smith likely replacements for the Bulleen MP.
Polwarth Liberal MP Richard Riordan is yet to concede his seat in southwest Victoria, after a sizeable swing to Labor candidate Hutch Hussein.
The Liberal Party and its predecessors have held Polwarth for more than a century, with former Coalition ministers Ian Smith and Terry Mulder previously holding the seat.
10.15pm
Agriculture Minister Gayle Tierney is struggling to retain her seat in Victoria’s upper house, despite Labor’s strong showing statewide.
On early projections for the five seats up for grabs in Western Victoria, Ms Tierney’s parliamentary future is in doubt.
Ms Tierney was placed second on Labor’s Western Victoria ticket, behind former Warrnambool mayor Jacinta Ermacora, who clinched first place after the retirement of former minister Jaala Pulford.
In early numbers, Liberal MP Bev McArthur has won the first Western Victoria seat, followed by Ms Ermacora while former Colac-Otway Shire mayor Joe McCracken has won the third seat for the Liberal Party.
Hinch Party MP Stuart Grimley is on track to win a second term for Western Victoria while the final spot, at present, is flowing Legalise Cannabis candidate Andrew Dowling’s way.
That means both Ms Tierney and Animal Justice MP Andy Meddick’s seats in the upper house are in jeopardy, although the count for Western Victoria will take days to determine.
9.10PM
Frustration with Labor and the independents has led to a far greater swing against Labor in regional Victoria, boosting the National Party’s numbers in the Lower House from six to nine MPs.
The Nats have wiped out Shepparton independent Suzanna Sheed and are set to knock Mildura independent Ali Cupper out of parliament.
But one of the biggest surprises was Morwell, which the Nats gained on the back of a 10 per cent swing against Labor candidate Kate Maxfield, despite Premier Daniel Andrews’ attempts to win over voters on the back of his promise to revive the State Electricity Commission.
One of the biggest issues to hit the Morwell electorate has been Labor’s failure to defend the timber industry from green lawfare, which has led to a log shortage that is set to force the closure of timber mills and the white paper processing line at the Maryvale mill.
Nationals Leader Peter Walsh said wins in Shepparton and Mildura reflected frustration with the independents, who had repeatedly voted with the government.
As for Morwell, Mr Walsh said: “Labor had deserted the shop floor and become a party of the intellectual elite, not workers.”
8.50PM
Coalition frontbencher Roma Britnell is on track to retain South West Coast for the Liberal Party.
Ms Britnell was under challenge from several independent challengers including former upper house MP James Purcell, former Moyne Shire mayor Jim Doukas and former journalist Carol Altmann.
The Liberal MP said while she was pleased with the result, she wasn’t declaring victory yet.
“It’s a bittersweet night. Our campaign is doing well in South West Coast but I am disappointed for some of my colleagues,” Ms Britnell said.
“Regional Victoria clearly isn’t happy with the Andrews government but it appears mostly Melbourne seats will re-elect Labor.”
8.30PM
Daniel Andrews is set for a third term as Victoria’s Premier, despite swings against the ALP statewide.
Labor is on track for majority government as of 8.20pm, although ABC election analyst Antony Green said there was still potential for minority government.
On early numbers, the ALP has picked up Ripon, with Labor candidate Martha Haylett set to defeat Liberal MP Louise Staley.
Morwell is swaying the National Party’s way with Nats candidate Martin Cameron in a tight contest against Labor candidate Kate Maxfield.
Bass is also a close-run race with Labor MP Jordan Crugnale in a narrow run against Liberal candidate Aaron Brown.
8PM
Shepparton independent MP Suzanna Sheed is falling behind in a battle with the Nationals candidate Kim O’Keefe, with 22 per cent of the vote counted.
While much of the count covers smaller rural booths, Ms Sheed has gained strong support from these communities in the past, particularly in defending the region’s irrigators from federal water buyouts under the Murray Darling Basin Plan.
But Ms O’Keefe is ahead, with 54.3 per cent of the vote on the back of Liberal preferences versus Ms Sheed on 45.7 per cent.
However counts are yet to come in from Shepparton’s larger booths.
7.35PM
With sizeable primary counts in National Party heartland, leader Peter Walsh is easily back in Murray Plains.
Gippsland East MP Tim Bull is also back for another term, as is deputy leader Emma Kealy in Lowan.
While pleased with the early results, Mr Bull said “we’ll have to see what else unfolds”.
“But we are doing quite well in Shepparton and Mildura,” he said, where the Nats are battling to unseat independents Suzanna Sheed and Ali Cupper, respectively.
Gippsland South MP Danny O’Brien has been returned in the seat once held by former deputy premier Peter Ryan.
Euroa Nats candidate Annabelle Cleeland looks set to win the central Victorian seat, replacing retiring MP Steph Ryan.
The junior Coalition partner is aiming to win back Shepparton and Mildura.
Shepparton is a three-horse race and too early to call.
In Mildura, independent MP Ali Cupper is improving on her 2018 result.
7.20PM
Another Ripon nailbiter this evening with Liberal MP Louise Staley and Labor candidate Martha Haylett both nudging 37 per cent primary vote each.
Preference flows were always going to be crucial in the seat that covers parts of Ballarat, Stawell, Ararat, Maryborough and Beaufort.
In Shepparton, National Party candidate Kim O’Keefe is leading on primary votes at 32 per cent with both Liberal candidate Cheryl Hammer and independent MP Suzanna Sheed at about 28 per cent each.
In South West Coast, Liberal MP Roma Britnell is ahead with about 50 per cent of the primary vote. She’s facing a number of high-profile independent challengers including former upper house crossbencher James Purcell.
These are all early numbers, which are indicative but can change quite quickly.
6.40PM
In very early numbers for Ripon, Liberal MP Louise Staley is sitting at 41 per cent to Labor candidate Martha Haylett on 36 per cent.
However, the number are from rural booths, which lean towards the Coalition.
Likewise, in Euroa, National Party candidate Annabelle Cleeland on 42 per cent is streets ahead of Liberal Party candidate Brad Hearn on 24 per cent.
In other National Party strongholds, Gippsland East MP Tim Bull and Lowan MP Emma Kealy are both well above 50 per cent in their respective constituencies.
It must be remembered that small-town booth results are early indicators but larger regional centres can alter the vote significantly once larger booths roll in about 8pm
6.00PM
Some will be casting their vote on Saturday in Ararat or Alexandra. Others will exercise their democratic duty in Yarpturk or Zeerurst. Many have already voted by pre-poll.
Premier Daniel Andrews is aiming for a historic third term in office for Victorian Labor- matching John Cain Jnr’s electoral success.
Opinion polls in the final fortnight of the campaign point to a Labor victory, albeit narrower than the 2018 “Danslide” achieved against Opposition Leader Matthew Guy.
Complicating the picture is the rise of the rural independent movement.
Independent MPs Suzanna Sheed and Ali Cupper hold Shepparton and Mildura respectively. Credible independent challengers are running statewide in seats such as Benambra, South West Coast, Bellarine and Melbourne’s western suburbs.
Benambra
(Liberal 2.6%)
In the heart of Cathy McGowan’s orange independent revolution nearly a decade ago, former McGowan staffer Jacqui Hawkins nearly replicated her former boss’s success in 2018. She’s back for another run in 2022 against Liberal MP Bill Tilley. Seat polling, though notoriously fallible, points to a tight contest with Hawkins scraping across the line.
Bass
(Liberal 0.7%)
A quarter century ago, ex-Labor turned independent Susan Davies won what was then known as Gippsland East after former Liberal leader Alan Brown’s retirement. Now in 2022, Brown’s son Aaron is aiming to win back Bass from first term Labor MP Jordan Crugnale. A redistribution has made the seat now notionally Liberal, giving Brown a head start.
Eureka
(Labor 9.6%)
Covering Ballarat’s southern suburbs and the Midland Highway hinterland, this seat will easily stay in Labor’s hands. First term MP Michaela Settle’s electorate now stretches further south following redistribution, now covering Bamganie- the erstwhile home of Victoria’s longest serving premier Henry Bolte.
South West Coast
(Liberal 3.2%)
When Denis Napthine first contested South West Coast as a new electorate in 2002, he nearly lost the seat in that year’s Brackslide election. Over the next few election cycles, he built up a solid Liberal margin. Liberal MP Roma Britnell replaced the retiring ex-Premier at a 2015 by election. This election, she faces several high profile independents including ex upper house MP James Purcell, journalist Carol Altmann and popular ex-mayor Jim Doukas. Preferences set to play a key role in the count.
Polwarth
(Liberal 2.0%)
For generations, Polwarth was as Liberal as Melbourne or Northcote were Labor. How times (and election boundaries) change. The two urban seats are now Greens heartland and Polwarth is contestable for Labor for the first time since its creation in colonial times. The reason? Polwarth’s eastern flank now takes in a decent chunk of Torquay and the surf city has shifted Labor’s way in recent cycles.
Morwell
(Labor 4.0%)
Three words sum up the battle for Morwell: State Electricity Commission. The Premier has floated the prospect of the SEC’s return, with a Morwell office as a key plank of the billion dollar platform. The vacuum created by Nat turned independent Russell Northe had created uncertainty over which way the votes will fall. The Nats are attempting to replicate the ex-football star magic they had with Northe by drafting one of his ex-teammates, Martin Cameron. Labor have doctor Kate Maxfield while the Liberal Party are running local councillor Dale Harriman. Following a redistribution, the seat is notionally Labor.
Lara
(Labor 19.1%)
Former sport minister John Eren held Lara for two decades – one of the safest seats for Labor in regional Victoria. His successor as Labor candidate is set to retain the seat, which covers the northern suburbs of Geelong.
Shepparton
(Independent 5.3% vs Lib)
When the National Party lost Shepparton in 2014, amid controversy over the future of the SPC cannery, it presented the junior Coalition party with an existential crisis. Shepparton solicitor Susanna Sheed cemented her position at the 2018 election, with Liberal candidate Cheryl Hammer pushing the Nats into third place. Sheed is likely to win again, with Hammer running again for the Libs and former Shepparton mayor Kim O’Keefe running for the Nats.
Lowan
(National 21.0%)
Hamilton is arguably the home of rural Victorian Liberalism. So it chafed for the senior Coalition partner when its junior won Lowan under Hugh Delahunty two decades ago. Delahunty’s successor as Nats flag bearer, Emma Kealy, easily retained the seat for the party following his retirement, one of the safest conservative seats statewide.
Mildura
(Independent 0.0% ^)
The Sunraysia city has often caused a stir on election nights. The Libs won it from the Nats back in the 80s when they had a fraught relationship. Then Russell Savage was the first indicator of a rural backlash against the Kennett revolution, winning the seat in 1996 and holding the balance of power three years later. Independent MP Ali Cupper is following in the Russell Savage maverick tradition, holding the seat on a margin barely above zero. Will be a close race.
Narracan
(Liberal 10.0%)
The well-heeled eastern suburbs of Melbourne used to boast the bluest of Victoria’s Liberal electorates. But Hawthorn fell and Brighton teetered on the edge of a Labor win at the 2018 election. Post election, Liberal MP Gary Blackwood was the recipient of the party’s biggest margin in Spring Street. Blackwood is retiring this weekend, with Liberal candidate Wayne Farnham set to replace him as Narracan MP.
Note: following the death of National Party candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the Narracan election has failed and a special ballot will take place in the new year.
Ripon
(Labor 2.7%)
Shadow treasurer Louise Staley is in the fight of her political life with a redistribution giving Labor candidate Martha Haylett a strong head start in the marginal seat. Curiously, the leaders have campaigned far less in Ripon this election compared to 2018, suggesting it’s less tight than the numbers suggest. Ripon’s Labor towns are finely balanced with its Coalition hinterland, but the new boundaries have placed a significant chunk of Ballarat’s new suburbs in Ripon territory.
Murray Plains
(National 24.0%)
The Swan Hill constituency is one of the National Party’s safest, held by state leader Peter Walsh. Veteran Walsh will easily retain the seat but, set to turn 70 in the next term, will be serve another four years. Locals say a by election in the new year is likely in the event of another Coalition loss on Saturday night.
Wendouree
(Labor 11.0%)
A safe Ballarat seat since its creation, a young Steve Bracks contested its predecessor seat back in the 80s (and lost). Such a scenario is unlikely for Labor this weekend with a safe electoral buffer handing MP Juliana Addison a weekend win against Liberal challenger Samantha McIntosh.
Bellarine
(Labor 11.4%)
Long-serving minister Lisa Neville turned Bellarine from a marginal electorate to a safe hold for Labor over her two decade career. Will her retirement make a difference to the ALP vote? Independent candidate Sarah Fenton, a high-profile business figure, has covered the region with posters and would present a challenge to Labor candidate Alison Marchant were she to get into second place over Liberal candidate Donnie Grigau.
Gippsland East
(National 17.6%)
Often forgotten by Spring Street, the far right hand corner of the television weather map gave Jeff Kennett a stormy reception back in 1999. Independent MP Craig Ingram was famously one of the three rural representatives to aid Steve Bracks into power after the Kennett balloon deflated in regional Victoria. Ingram lost in 2010 to Nats challenger Tim Bull, who has held the seat ever since. Former surprise senator Ricky Muir is running for the Shooters Party against Bull, but unlikely to replicate his Canberra count back coup.
Macedon
(Labor 13.4%)
Handily located on the Bendigo rail line, Macedon used to be a tight race between Labor and the Coalition. Not any more. Health Minister Mary Anne Thomas has held the seat on a safe margin for several terms now and is likely to win again handily on Saturday night.
Gippsland South
(National 14.0%)
Once the constituency of National Party leader Peter Ryan, Gippsland South stayed with the Nats at a 2015 by election triggered by Ryan’s retirement. Incumbent Nats MP Danny O’Brien highly likely to retain, given a sizeable margin. The bigger question is: will he be Walsh’s replacement as leader in the next term?
South Barwon
(Labor 3.0%)
Covering Geelong’s southern suburbs, South Barwon was a classic marginal constituency that both sides needed to win to form government. Andrew Katos won the seat for the Liberal Party in 2010, helping Ted Baillieu into power. He lost to Labor’s Darren Cheeseman in 2018. Cheeseman and Katos are facing off for a second time this Saturday.
Euroa
(National 15.3%)
A relatively new seat, Euroa was first contested by Nats flag bearer Steph Ryan at the 2014 election. She boosted her primary vote in 2018 with the absence of a Liberal candidate. With her retirement, the seat is open to a three cornered contest. Nats candidate Annabelle Cleeland has the central Victorian seat festooned with green and gold and based on past electoral history, is likely to win over Liberal candidate Brad Hearn.
Bendigo East
(Labor 12.1%)
Once a marginal constituency, a 25 year old Jacinta Allan won the seat at the 1999 election and has built up a massive margin for Labor over six election campaigns. Set to win Bendigo East again easily, the question in the coming term is – will this be the seat of the next premier?
Bendigo West
(Labor 18.6%)
Apart from one Liberal win amid the Kennett landslide of 1992, Bendigo West has been held by Labor since its creation in the Cain years. Labor MP Maree Edwards enjoys one of the strongest margins for the ALP in regional Victoria and is set to maintain that margin over the weekend.
Ovens Valley
(National 12.0%)
Previously known as Murray Valley, the northeast seat was once held by Country Party leader George Moss and his successors have all served as Nats frontbenchers. Tim McCurdy has held the seat since its creation in 2014 but suffered somewhat of an election night scare in 2028 when independent challenger Tammy Atkins nearly jumped into second spot in the primary vote count. An absence of an independent challenger this election season means McCurdy is poised to win with less effort this time.
Eildon
(Liberal 1.0%)
Once encompassing the Seymour electorate held by Kennett minister Marie Tehan, Liberal MP Cindy McLeish returned the electorate to the Coalition in 2010. It was rebadged at the 2014 election and Ms McLeish is poised to win a fourth term, despite running close in the two party preferred race in 2018.
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