Federal election 2025: Regional Australia’s electorate changes

A recent redistribution has shaken up the race for the next federal election, due by May next year. Here’s what it means for regional Australia.

Electorate boundary changes across Victoria are causing mild panic at party headquarters — but experts say regional MPs have more to fear from a growing independent streak when Australians next go to the polls.

Thirteen of the 14 regional MPs representing southeastern Australia will run again for another term in Canberra, with Monash Liberal MP Russell Broadbent the only retiree.

A recent shake-up of federal boundaries in Victoria by the Australian Electoral Commission has seemingly spelt the end of the Higgins constituency, held by prime ministers Harold Holt and John Gorton.

But the AEC redistribution surgery has been less invasive for regional seat holders.

Held by National Party backbencher Sam Birrell, the Nicholls constituency covering Goulburn Valley is set to take Kilmore from McEwen at the next election, but will lose Pyalong and Tooborac to the neighbouring Bendigo electorate.

Meanwhile, some AEC alterations of federal borderlines will push Wannon, held by Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan, eastwards to take in some of Geelong’s growth corridor from neighbouring Corangamite.

Monash University political expert Zareh Ghazarian said Corangamite used to be regional Victoria’s hot seat prior to the 2022 election, with both Labor and Coalition leaders making multiple appearances there on the campaign trail.

But Labor MP Libby Coker holds Corangamite on a margin of nearly than 8 per cent, pushing it into reasonably safe territory for the Albanese Government.

“The definition of a safe seat can be said with less confidence now than only a few years ago, with social media and the cost-of-living debate making voting patterns less predictable,” Dr Ghazarian said.

“But the closest margins in regional Victoria now are Wannon (3.9 per cent versus independent in 2022) and Monash (2.9 per cent at the 2022 election).”

Monash is shaping up to be the wildcard at the next federal poll, which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has to call before May next year.

Federal Liberal MP Russell Broadbent (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

Long-serving Liberal MP Russell Broadbent lost preselection for the west Gippsland constituency to business leader Mary Aldred last year, with Labor the closest in the two-party preferred count locally since the 1990s.

Dr Ghazarian said major parties were under pressure across the western world with two major examples in the past week.

He said the British general election and French parliamentary poll showed longstanding voting trends were being up-ended by social media.

“There were seats lost at the UK election that were held by the Conservative Party for generations. There were a few upsets for British Labour as well, despite the landslide in their favour. So it is harder to predict.”