Rural electorates key to winning government in federal election

SOUTHERN Australia’s rural electorates will be the key to winning government in the coming federal election, writes ALEX SINNOT.

AUSTRALIA will go to the polls within months, although the specific date would only be known to Prime Minister Scott Morrison and close confidantes.

Mr Morrison will face his first election as Coalition leader, and while much attention will be on Queensland, his government will need to ensure it pays attention to southern electorates.

It must retain marginal Corangamite, hold on to Mallee and potentially win back Indi in order to secure a third term.

Conversely, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will need to hang on to Bendigo and Eden-Monaro while aiming to clinch Corangamite in his quest for The Lodge.

Further complicating matters for the Morrison Government is last year’s redistribution by the Australian Electoral Commission.

Rural-to-urban population flows resulted in most regional seats being expanded while a new federal seat was established in Melbourne’s burgeoning northwestern suburbs.

The key changes from the redistribution include the shrinking of the Corangamite electorate, which lost the Colac region and expanded east to include most of the Bellarine Peninsula.

Two Victorian electorates were also rebranded.

The Murray constituency, held by National Party MP Damian Drum, has largely been replaced by Nicholls — named after reconciliation campaigners Douglas and Gladys Nicholls.

The McMillan electorate, held by Liberal MP Russell Broadbent, has been succeeded by the new Monash constituency, named after famed general Sir John Monash.

This seat-by-seat analysis has margins based on the new redistributed boundaries:

BALLARAT

(Safe Labor — 7.4 per cent)

Labor: Catherine King MP

Liberal: TBA

Ballarat was a swing seat for more than a generation but has become increasingly safe for Labor since the election of Catherine King at the 2001 election.

Ms King briefly served as a minister in the Gillard and Rudd cabinets.

Lawyer Sarah Wade won Liberal preselection at the 2016 poll but state election candidates Amy Johnson and Andrew Kilmartin have both expressed interest in running at a federal level after unsuccessful tilts last year.

The National Party has run in the seat previously but is yet to declare whether it will run again in the mostly urban constituency.

BENDIGO

(Marginal Labor — 3.8 per cent)

Labor: Lisa Chesters MP

Liberal: TBA

Former union organiser Lisa Chesters has represented Bendigo since 2016, defeating the Coalition on preferences. She is the only declared candidate for the marginal seat so far. Gaelle Broad, who ran for the National Party in the Bendigo East seat at last year’s state election, has indicated interest in running at a federal level. The Liberal Party is yet to hold its preselection ballot, with Maldon businesswoman Megan Purcell representing the party at the 2016 poll.

CORANGAMITE

(Marginal Liberal — 0.03 per cent)

Liberal: Sarah Henderson MP

Labor: Libby Coker

With a large chunk of the Colac region to be part of Wannon, Corangamite has gone from a marginal to an ultra-marginal constituency. Liberal MP Sarah Henderson holds the seat, which now takes in more of the Bellarine Peninsula, on a notional 0.03 per cent — the slimmest margin in the country. Her Labor challenger is Libby Coker, a former Surf Coast Shire mayor.

Ms Henderson has held the seat since 2013, with Ms Coker cutting that margin slightly at the 2016 poll.

EDEN-MONARO

(Marginal Labor — 2.9 per cent)

Labor: Mike Kelly MP

Liberal: Fiona Kotvojs

The federation seat was known as the nation’s bellwether constituency, with its representative part of the government of the day from Whitlam’s 1972 victory. However, the 2016 election broke the mould, with the Coalition retaining government but doing so without securing Eden Monaro. Former Labor MP Mike Kelly, who held the seat during the Rudd-Gillard years, won back the constituency from Liberal MP Peter Hendy. Beef farmer and small businesswoman Fiona Kotvojs won Liberal preselection for the seat last year, with the Nats unlikely to field a candidate.

FARRER

(Very safe Liberal — 20.3 per cent)

Liberal: Sussan Ley MP

Labor: Kieran Drabsch

The Farrer electorate used to be the jewel in the National Party crown, with former leader Tim Fischer representing the constituency for 17 years. Liberal MP Sussan Ley now holds the seat with a commanding 20 per cent margin, a figure that has grown steadily since she was first elected in 2001. Labor has preselected Griffith teacher Kieran Drabsch to take on Ms Ley, currently an assistant minister in the Morrison Government.

GIPPSLAND

(Very safe National — 18.2 per cent)

National: Darren Chester MP

Labor: TBA

Gippsland has been held by the Nats since the beginnings of the Country Party in the early 1920s. The most famed representative of the constituency was Fraser minister Peter Nixon, with his successor Peter McGauran serving in several portfolios during the Howard years. Former journalist Darren Chester was easily elected at a 2008 by-election triggered by Mr McGauran’s retirement, highlighting the relatively weak Labor and Liberal vote in the constituency. Labor is yet to announce a candidate, although several independent challengers made bids for the overlapping Gippsland East at last year’s state election.

INDI

(Marginal
independent — 4.1 per cent)

Independent:
Helen Haines

Liberal: Steve Martin

National: TBA

All eyes have been on Indi for the past two election cycles to witness the battle between Sophie Mirabella (Liberal MP 2001-13) and Cathy McGowan (independent MP 2013-19). Voices for Indi, the group that campaigned for Ms McGowan’s election and re-election, has preselected Helen Haines to carry the Orange flame for the 2019 contest. Wodonga engineer Steve Martin was preselected as the Liberal candidate last year while the Nationals are yet to draft a contender for the seat once held by party hero John McEwen. Former Wodonga councillor Eric Kerr is running as the Labor candidate.

MALLEE

(Very safe National — 19.8 per cent)

National: TBA

Independent: Ray Kingston

National Party MP Andrew Broad had a lock on the Mallee constituency for life — until the Sugar Baby scandal broke. His successor as the Nats candidate will be determined this Saturday in Birchip, with contenders throwing their hats in the ring. Meanwhile, the lack of an incumbent Nats runner allows the Liberal Party to stand a candidate for the first time since the 2013 election. It has been speculated Tony Abbott’s former chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin, who was raised in Wycheproof, may stand for the Libs. Former Yarriambiack Shire mayor Ray Kingston is running as an independent candidate saying he is “angry that while our leaders play games in Canberra, the people of Mallee are missing out on real investment.”

McEWEN

(Safe Labor — 5.3 per cent)

Labor: Rob Mitchell MP

Liberal: TBA

McEwen produced the tightest race in the nation at the 2007 general election when incumbent Liberal MP Fran Bailey managed to fend off Labor challenger Rob Mitchell by only a handful of votes. Ms Bailey retired at the 2010 poll and Mr Mitchell succeeded her with the redistribution solidifying the Labor vote in the north central Victorian seat. The Liberal Party is yet to preselect a candidate.

MONASH

(Safe Liberal — 7.6 per cent)

Liberal:
Russell Broadbent MP

Labor: Jessica O’Donnell

After seven decades covering the western end of Gippsland, the McMillan electorate is no more. In its place is the new Monash constituency with veteran Liberal MP Russell Broadbent seeking to represent most of the territory previously covered by his old seat. Baw Baw councillor Jessica O’Donnell has been preselected as the Labor candidate in a seat that could be a closer race than previous contest due to the redrawn boundaries and the ALP’s success in the overlapping Bass electorate at last year’s state election.

NICHOLLS

(Very safe National — 22.3 per cent)

National: Damian Drum MP

Labor: TBA

This newly-created seat is mainly a rebadged version of the old Murray constituency, which was abolished in the redistribution. Murray MP Damian Drum now notionally has the strongest Coalition margin in Australia, at more than 22 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Liberal challenger Duncan McGauchie is unable to take on Mr Drum again due to the Coalition agreement, while Labor is yet to field a candidate. Independent candidate Andrew Bock is the only other declared contender for the seat covering the Shepparton region.

RIVERINA

(Very safe National — 16.4 per cent)

National: Michael McCormack MP

Labor: Mark Jeffreson

Riverina’s representative Michael McCormack has had a rapid rise since replacing Kay Hull at the 2010 federal election. The former journalist held several portfolios in the Turnbull Government before taking over the reins as National Party boss last year following the implosion of Barnaby Joyce’s leadership. The Nats hold Riverina with a very safe 16 per cent buffer. Wagga Wagga businessman Mark Jeffreson was preselected as Labor candidate last year.

WANNON

(Safe Liberal — 9.3 per cent)

Liberal: Dan Tehan MP

Labor: TBA

Wannon has been in Liberal hands since a young Malcolm Fraser won the seat on a second attempt at the 1955 election. The redistribution has boosted the Coalition vote further with Labor-leaning Maryborough out and Liberal-leaning Colac now in. Education Minister Dan Tehan is yet to face any challengers for a fourth term representing the Western District seat, although Southern Grampians councillor Katrina Rainsford this week indicated to The Weekly Times that she may stand.

● All margins for Victoria based on redistributed boundaries.

TBA= to be announced.