Bookmakers say Andrews Labor Government set to win third term

Daniel Andrews is on track to pass John Cain junior’s record as Victoria’s longest-serving Labor premier, bookmakers say.

Daniel Andrews is set to win a third term as Victoria’s premier, with bookmakers claiming Labor is streets ahead of Matthew Guy and the Coalition.

Bookmakers at the TAB have Labor at $1.11 to the Coalition on $6 as the race for Spring Street enters the home straight towards the November 26 poll.

On a seat-by-seat projection, the TAB has Labor picking up Ripon, held by shadow treasurer Louise Staley, while retaining a swag of regional seats.

Ripon Labor candidate Martha Haylett has odds of $1.65 to Ms Staley on $2.15.

Liberal candidate Sam Groth is set to win back Nepean on $1.28 from incumbent Labor MP Chris Brayne, on $3.50.

Bookmakers are tipping Mildura independent MP Ali Cupper to retain her northwest Victorian electorate, at $1.50, with both Coalition challengers — National Party candidate Jade Benham and Liberal Party candidate Paul Matheson on $2.50.

Deakin University politics expert Geoff Robinson said polling had consistently pointed to a Labor victory for some time.

However, he said individual seat results may surprise given the rise of the teal independent movement at the federal election in May.

“The opinion polling has shown Labor well ahead for some time. It’s one of the reasons why the Coalition switched from Michael O’Brien back to Matthew Guy,” Dr Robinson said.

“Overlaying the federal results in May, one of the surprises was Labor losing significant ground in the western suburbs (of Melbourne).

“State seats are obviously smaller than federal electorates, so if there’s a strong enough support for an independent, there may be some threat to Labor’s position in Melton, Werribee- where they lost support in 2018. However, the Coalition also face a similar challenge in the eastern suburbs if you look at the results in Kooyong and Goldstein.”

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Premier Daniel Andrews faced off at the previous state election in November 2018. Pictures: David Crosling, Julian Smith

Bookmakers at the TAB also predict the Coalition to retain Eildon, with Liberal MP Cindy McLeish on $1.42 to Labor on $2.75 – with the ALP yet to announce a candidate.

South Barwon is tipped to be retained by Labor MP Darren Cheeseman, on $1.35, to Liberal candidate Andrew Katos on $3. Mr Katos previously represented the Geelong constituency.

Neighbouring Polwarth is projected to be retained by Liberal MP Richard Riordan, on $1.18, to Labor candidate Hutch Hussein on $4.25.

“Despite the demographic changes in the Geelong region, I would say that Richard Riordan will retain Polwarth for the Coalition,” Dr Robinson said.

“There are a number of seats where there are high-profile independents standing. Ali Cupper, for instance, is the incumbent in Mildura, Suzanna Sheed has a profile in Shepparton.

“Morwell is an open question, given the retirement of the independent MP (Russell Northe).”

Yesterday, Mr Andrews pledged to serve a full term if re-elected in November, following speculation Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan would take on the state’s top job sometime between 2023 and 2026.

Mr Guy said he expected the Coalition to be victorious next month but added that Ms Allan was clearly Mr Andrews’ heir apparent.