Victoria state redistribution: Ripon, Lowan, Polwarth, Bass electorates all set to be reshaped
With Melbourne and nearby regional centres booming, Victoria’s electorate boundaries need to be redrawn. See how the changes are set to change your part of the state.
A POLITICAL tug-of-war is set to play out in the new year over the ultra-marginal Ripon electorate as Victoria’s electoral boundaries are redrawn.
The country-to-city population drift will play a major role in the Victorian Electoral Commission’s revision of constituency boundaries, which is likely to result in some previously rural electorates becoming more urban.
Lowan, covering the Hamilton and Horsham regions, is significantly under the population quota, and will have to bite into neighbouring Ripon or South West Coast to rebalance its elector numbers.
Deakin University politics expert Geoff Robinson said Ripon’s boundaries were likely to be the most contentious for the major parties, given the seat WAs held on a wafer-thin margin by shadow treasurer Louise Staley.
Prior to Ms Staley winning the seat for the Liberal Party in 2014, the seat covering Ararat, Beaufort and Stawell was held by Labor MP Joe Helper, who served as agriculture minister in the Brumby government.
“For the past few elections, Ripon has been a close contest. Unlike many regional seats, it’s a marginal that’s winnable for both sides, Labor and the Coalition will be watching with interest,” Dr Robinson said.
“There’s several options for Ripon. Lowan needs to boost its numbers, so the Lowan boundary may move eastwards to include a part of Ripon, likely Stawell. Donald and the northern part of Ripon may be included in Mildura or Murray Plains, meaning Ripon’s boundaries move closer to Ballarat.”
The Ripon drift is a theme across regional Victoria, with seats on Melbourne’s urban-rural boundary the site of the greatest population growth.
In the east spanning Pakenham to Wonthaggi, the Bass electorate, held by Labor MP Jordan Crugnale, will need to lose voters to the neighbouring South Gippsland electorate, held by National Party MP Danny O’Brien.
In the west, spanning Geelong’s southern suburbs to Torquay, the South Barwon electorate, held by fellow Labor MP Darren Cheeseman, will need to lose voters to the neighbouring Polwarth electorate, held by Liberal MP Richard Riordan.
“Both the Bellarine (electorate, held by Labor minister Lisa Neville) and South Barwon cover Geelong’s expanding suburbs and are over quota, so the boundaries will need to contract there and Polwarth will have to take on a bit more of an urban complexion, potentially including Torquay and losing some of its rural areas to neighbouring seats that are under quota,” Dr Robinson said.
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