Inland Rail: Modelling ‘some of the worst seen’ as NSW Farmers, CWA continue push for rail project review

It’s meant to be a once-in-a-generation infrastructure project to change the face of regional Australia. But there are claims the 10 billion dollar inland rail is underpinned by ‘some of the worst’ modelling seen.

High expectations: NSW Farmers and the Country Women’s Association of NSW have warned the landmark rail line won’t live up to expectations.

THE northern NSW section of the inland rail project is based on “some of the worst” modelling that hydrological and economic experts have ever seen, a Senate hearing has heard.

And the project is on track to deliver a net benefit value of less than one, prompting a warning from NSW Farmers and the Country Women’s Association of NSW the landmark rail line won’t live up to expectations.

“In real terms, the Government should be taking stock at this time and looking at this project … because ultimately if you have a project that has a net benefit value of less than one, you’re talking about society as a whole being worse off as a consequence of this project,” NSWFA and CWA special counsel Peter Holt, told a Senate inquiry into inland rail’s management and delivery last week.

At question was the North Star to Border section of the track, where 36km of greenfield track traversing floodplains is still in contention.

An independent review of the environmental impact statement for that section – funded by 50 landholders each contributing $1000, through a NSWFA and CWA initiative – found the modelling was poor and needed to be redone.

Mr Holt said the hydrological modelling across the Macintyre River was “entirely inadequate” and did not consider landholders’ experience, while the business case did not stack up.

“The economist said, ‘Please don’t put my name on this, this is some of the worst stuff I’ve seen, I can’t believe any organisation would stand behind material of this kind,” Mr Holt said.

The long sought-after inland rail project was announced in 2017, when the Government committed $8.4 billion to the $10 billion project cost, with the remainder expected to come from private investments.

The budget has since blown out to at least $12.1 billion, while landholders along greenfield sections of the track in NSW and Queensland have expressed their frustration over what they say is a lack of consultation.

NSWFA and CWA threatened to launch legal action in July, refusing further discussions unless there is an independent assessment of key features of the route.

Inland Rail chief executive Richard Wankmuller told the inquiry he was “a little frustrated” at the lobby groups’ refusal to meet, as he committed to providing any additional information they wanted.

“I do acknowledge there are technical and emotional challenges that remain for us to address,” he said.

“We have been asked to deliver an alignment that gets us there in under 24 hours – we’re well aware that creates impacts, you can’t do this and have a solution that doesn’t impact anything.”