Ignore El Niño chatter and focus on your own paddock

WHAT’S happening in your own paddock is more important than climate model predictions.

Ignore El Niño chatter

WHAT’S happening in your own paddock is more important than climate model predictions, an expert has warned.

Dale Grey, an agronomist specialising in climate variability with the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, says soil moisture content is what farmers should be focusing on when planning cropping programs, not chatter about the possibility of an El Niño developing.

“The frustrating thing about my game is that because climate models are reliably unreliable at this time of year, there is nothing of value we can say now about what the season is going to be like,” Mr Grey said.

“The models are showing very similar patterns to last year so one thing I do predict is that in the next few months there is going to be a lot more talk about El Niño, which was the case in 2014.

“In the end, that El Niño turned out to be a bit of a fizzer so if you are hearing talk, remember that at this time of the year it’s just that — talk.

“An El Nino this season is a possibility, but a lot of things have to link up in the next three-to-five months for it to eventuate. “At this time of the year its worth contemplating it for a moment, but not much more, until we get to the more reliable time of the year for forecasting.”

Mr Grey said historically, weather models demonstrated the greatest skill in predicting outcomes from May through to November. He said until then, soil moisture monitoring was a more reliable tool for cropping decisions.

Maps provided by CSIRO show distinct variations in modelled soil moisture content in regions across Victoria.

“Despite much of the state’s cropping areas looking drier in the subsoil compared to the same week last year, March and April are better times for rain, so as long as weeds are controlled, you can almost guarantee some of it will be around for this year’s crop.”