‘Flawed’ model underpins Murray Darling Basin plan

A key model underpinning the Murray Darling Basin Plan’s push to recover 3200GL for the environment is flawed, say state government sources.

THE “relaxed constraints” model that underpins the federal push to lift the Murray Darling Basin recovery target by 450 gigalitres to 3200GL is flawed, according to key state government sources.

The 3200GL target was set in 2012 by the then Gillard Government, in a bid to flood 75 per cent of the Basin’s wetlands and floodplains, as well as push a peak flow of 80GL a day across the South Australian border.

The Murray Darling Basin Authority assumed it could push 80GL into SA by lifting Goulburn River daily flows to 40GL at McCoy’s Bridge, 18GL at Menindee and 40GL down the Murray.

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But one state government source said the MDBA’s 2012 model used redundant numbers, given reconfiguration of the Menindee Lakes would only allow peak flows of 14GL, while the Goulburn River maximum daily peak flow was closer to 20GL not 40GL.

The model also assumes the removal of constraints on flows — lifting dam outlet capacities, raising bridges, levies and roads, as well as gaining owner approval to flood at least 3000 farms and other properties.

Victorian Water Minister Lisa Neville and her NSW counterpart Melinda Pavey have warned they would not allow private property to be flooded without consent, nor would they support compulsory land acquisitions.

On Sunday both ministers called on their Murray Darling Basin Ministerial Council colleagues to back an independent peer review of the MDBA’s 2012 relaxed constraints model, on the basis it was outdated.

But South Australia, with backing from Federal Water Minister David Littleproud, blocked the move.

“Littleproud was running interference for South Australia,” a key state government source said.

But Mr Littleproud said he had taken a neutral position on the issue.

“I did not block NSW or Victoria,” Mr Littlproud said. “(And) respected the fact that South Australia didn’t support it.”

Minister Pavey said she was disappointed the Ministerial Council could not reach agreement to deliver greater transparency for Basin communities, but said NSW and Victoria would join forces to commission their own independent review.

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The review will play a crucial role in determining whether the Federal Government’s $1.5 billion push to recover another 450GL for the environment is worthwhile.

“I am concerned we are not being honest to our communities about what can actually be achieved, in delivering the Basin Plan — that’s why NSW and Victoria called for an independent review to ensure we can deliver what was committed by the Basin Plan,” Ms Pavey said.