Bureau of Meteorology boss Dr Andrew Johnson fronts Senate Estimates to defend El Nino declaration

Angst at the BOM continues after their director claimed he would be “very surprised” if its El Nino forecast influenced farmers’ decisions.

The Bureau of Meteorology is still distancing itself from farmer condemnation that El Nino forecasts were a major contributor in the cattle market downturn last year.

BOM director Andrew Johnson appeared before Senate estimates this week and was grilled about last year’s predictions of an extended dry spell for many parts of Australia that proved wide of the mark.

'Don’t blame us, blame the media!' The Bureau of Meteorology refuses to take responsibility for their own failures. pic.twitter.com/CnVr6WlnNo

— Senator Perin Davey (@PerinDavey) February 27, 2024

Senator Perin Davey identified the September declaration of an El Nino as being particularly telling, given cattle producers opted to sell into an already depressed market.

But Dr Johnson said: “I would be very surprised if one forecast influenced the decision of one farm family, one farm business.

Bureau of Meteorology director Dr Andrew Johnson. (AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

“I can’t speculate on what motivates individual farm businesses to make their decisions.

“We all know there is a degree of uncertainty in those forecasts.

“They are probabilistic. They are not deterministic. They don’t say it will be dry, it will be wet.”

Beef farmer Marc Greening at his property near Holbrook. Picture Yuri Kouzmin

Holbrook beef producer Marc Greening said he found Dr Johnson’s comments baffling.

Mr Greening said the cattle market began to tank around March-April last year when the BOM declared there were signs of an El Nino forming.

“To claim that weather forecasts have little impact on business decisions for the farming sector is absolutely absurd, naive and stupid,” he said.

“There are people who sold cattle in October in preparation for an upcoming drought. Fact.

“One of the major drivers for the downturn in the cattle price and oversupply was the lack of confidence. Fact.”

Cattle Australia chairman Garry Edwards.

Cattle Australia chairman Garry Edwards said the El Nino declaration by the BOM and its subsequent reporting had an “excessively negative influence on the market”.

“What led to that was the failure to give clear guidance of the percentile risk of the El Nino, rather than simply declaring an El Nino was going to occur,” he said.

“They were very general with their comments and how it impacted on livestock prices.

“To assume that negative reports in regards to weather events without clarification of risk ratings would not have a price influence on agriculture, given how dependent agriculture is on weather events, is somewhat naive at best.”