‘Give us a break’: Farmers banking on autumn rains for 2024 season
Farmers’ hopes are resting on timely rain and avoiding the worst of extreme heat and bushfires. See how the season is shaping up.
An early autumn break will be the icing on the cake for southeast Australia as farmers cash in on a better than expected summer season.
Though fires have ravaged pockets of Victoria over recent weeks with devastating results, much of the state will head into autumn in the best position it has been in for years.
But some areas are only focusing on what is in front of them now as this week’s late summer burst of 40-plus temperatures puts unwanted heat on fire threats.
A catastrophic fire danger rating is in place for the Wimmera on Wednesday and an extreme rating is forecast for every other Victorian fire district with the exception of Gippsland and the northeast.
The fire of most concern in the Beaufort area has grown to more than 20,000ha with the full extent of property and stock losses still to be determined.
The biggest concern for firefighters will be the impact of north-easterly winds predicted to increased to 40km/h during the day.
Temperatures will climb into the low 40s in Mildura, Swan Hill, Birchip, Kerang, Yarrawonga and Albury before a change is set to sweep the state from late Wednesday and, hopefully, attention can then turn again to autumn.
Most croppers are sitting on soils full of moisture while the recent lift in livestock prices has injected much needed confidence into that sector after it sustained big losses last year.
The benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator closed on Monday at 628c/kg carcass weight while there has been recent lift in mutton prices too.
Elders Bairnsdale livestock manager Morgan Davies will help sell the 8000 weaners at the famed mountain calf sales in Gippsland next week and said “perception is everything”.
“The meat job is looking more promising and the feedlot price is better so it feels like the market is going the right way,” Mr Davies said.
The late break in the high country saved the season in the region, he said, with some areas receiving as little as 10mm from April to September before rain generated feed and optimism.
“We’ve had a comfortable season since then and we’ve had heat in January which is normal,” Mr Davies said.
“If we could get an early break, anytime after the calf sales finish, then that would be perfect.”
There’s also positive news in Meat and Livestock Australia’s cattle projections released on Tuesday, which show the southern herd “reaching maturity” with the national herd to shrink by 1 per cent this year. This means less cattle on the market and potentially a lift in price.
But overwhelmingly, the greatest optimism in the farming sector is for croppers across southern NSW and Victoria, who will head into autumn with a full soil moisture profile.
Yet many say they still need the all-important autumn break before sowing.
Birchip Cropping Group chairman John Ferrier said there was a sense of positivity following the deluge of summer rain over the past three months.
He said many Victorian farmers had received 150mm to 200mm since harvest.
But that had been tempered with the need to control summer weeds, with some farmers spraying twice or more to retain that moisture.
“People are starting to look at their program and the enterprise mix and how much of each crop they will sow,” Mr Ferrier said.
The declining canola price has emerged as a concern for the coming season, with some farmers opting to sow less.
Canola prices are currently tracking at $620 a tonne; wheat is $345 a tonne, and lentils are $955 a tonne.
Southern NSW grower Tony Clough from Junee said his property received 135.5mm of rain in January. This compared to 69mm last year and 171mm in 2022.
“There has certainly been a lot of spraying, and the soil moisture profile is full,” Mr Clough said.
He will start sowing at the end of March and plans to grow canola, wheat and barley, sticking to the rotation despite some pricing concerns.
Ricky Allan farms near Wycheproof, which was one of five towns in Victoria that went from good rainfall in January to none this month.
He said the subsoil moisture levels were promising after nearly 100mm in January.
“We’re not too fussy when it (the autumn break) comes as long as it does come,” he said.
“It’s been dry this month, but it’s what we expect for summer.
“We’ve got a decent amount of subsoil moisture to give us a fair bit of confidence about the season ahead.
“It’s a good start, but we’re definitely a long way from home yet.”
Mr Allan said last year had seen about average rainfall but “it just kept coming at the right times”.
“In spring when we were looking for an inch, we got it,” he said.
He said his chemical bill had gone up after the January rain to head off weed growth.
“You are always trying to preserve that subsoil moisture,” he said.
“Initially you might take a hit on the cashflow, but hopefully you make it back at the other end.”
Tools to tackle mental health in the bush
The incidence of mental health conditions in farming communities is well reported. But here’s an easy tool farmers can use to support their mental health.
How Australian saleyards are tackling biosecurity risks
Diseases and viruses are continuing to threaten Australia’s agriculture industry. We take a deep dive on how saleyards are managing biosecurity risks.