BOM declares new El Niño for Australia

UPDATE: EASTERN Australia will be hit by another El Niño cycle — which often brings widespread drought.

DROUGHT. Weather. Tom & Jenny Small at Tottington, their sheep property near St Arnaud. Dry. Lambs. Wool. WTSocial. Pictured: Landscape. PICTURE: ZOE PHILLIPS

UPDATE: EASTERN Australia will be hit by another El Niño cycle — which often brings widespread drought.

The Bureau of Metrology made the announcement this afternoon.

The BOM’s climate models are now predicting a moderate to strong El Niño event, increasing the chances of drought conditions occurring across eastern Australia.

BOM senior climatologist Lynette Bettio told The Weekly Times that El Niño conditions, “often but not always associated with widespread drought”.

She said that both oceanic and atmospheric conditions were now acting together to reinforce the El Niño event.

“Last year there was warming in the oceans, but the atmosphere did not also respond,” Ms Bettio said. This meant a full blown El Niño failed to form.

However, the BOM expects this year to be a different situation. “The El Nino is likely to continue this year,” she said.

The weather pattern was likely to hit winter and spring rainfall in eastern Australia and south west Western Australia, she said. But, the degree to which it would have an impact remains unclear.

The last El Niño took place in 2009-2010, and was described as a weak-to-moderate type. It resulted in below average rainfall being recorded in many regions of eastern Australia.

This was followed by two La Nina years and some of the wettest conditions recorded.

Ms Bettio said the climate models were now predicting this year’s El Niño to be a “sustained event”.

“But (an El Niño) doesn’t always translate to reduced rainfall in eastern Australia,” she said.

Researchers were still trying to work out the reasons for why some El Ninos produced droughts and others did not, and what influence climate change could or would have on their frequency and ferocity, she said.