After months of threatening, El Nino is just around the corner

THE El Nino has almost arrived.

Elmhurst district farmer Tony Roberts inspects a reliable catchment dam on his property which is hardly holding any water. Pic ANDY ROGERS

THE El Nino has almost arrived.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s El Nino tracker has changed from “watch” to “alert”.

The drying weather pattern has been stirring for much of the year but scientists say it has not reached “full bloom” yet, even after failed winter and spring rains in south-eastern Australia.

In its latest update, the bureau said the Pacific Ocean had shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks.

“Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index has generally been in excess of El Niño thresholds for the past three months,” the BOM said.

“Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen.”

The bureau now says there is at least a 70 per cent chance of El Niño occurring.

The bureau’s scientists said “not all indicators” had shifted towards El Niño.

Tropical cloudiness near the date line and trade wind strength are close to average, suggesting the atmosphere was still not firmly linked with the warmer ocean below, the bureau said.

The bureau said international climate models expect the warm tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures to persist, with most models predicting values near or beyond El Niño thresholds for the next two to three months.

“Regardless of whether El Niño fully develops, warmer-than-average tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, combined with cooler waters currently to the north of Australia, increase the chance of some El Niño-like impacts,” the bureau said.

“For many parts of Australia, this suggests below average rainfall and above average temperatures in the months ahead.”

The bureau’s climate outlook said a drier than normal November to January was more likely over NSW and most of Victoria.