2015 commodity and input prices versus 2025 prices

With higher input costs a constant topic of conversation, The Weekly Times has done a deep dive on how prices for major inputs and commodities compare with a decade ago.

A lot has happened in the past decade in the agriculture world – droughts and floods have come and gone, Covid shut down the world, technology has advanced at a significant rate, artificial intelligence is taking the world by storm and commodity prices have jumped up and down, and around again.

With higher input costs and cost of living continuing to bite, we wanted to take a look at what is better or worse when compared to a decade ago.

Episode3 director and analyst Matt Dalgleish said when comparing historical prices it was important to use official data to show the trends.

“It is really useful rather than an anecdotal discussion,” Mr Dalgleish said.

“As these calculations demonstrate the real costs have increased to the producer and the supply chain, but the prices being received in real terms have also increased too.”

Mr Dalgleish said going forward from a farm and supply chain perspective, there needs to be a dedicated focus on efficiency gains, which was crucial for the industry to keep ahead of inflationary pressures as we will continue to see price pressures remain on key inputs.

The Weekly Times has compared some of the major commodity and input prices from 2015 with 2025 pricing. The prices are taken from May 1, 2025 and compared with the same date, or closest to in 2015.

Eastern Young Cattle Indicator

2025: 716c/kg carcass weight

2015: 454c/kg (585c/kg accounting for inflation of 2.9 per cent annually)

National Trade Lamb Indicator

2025: 844c/kg carcass weight

2015: 556c/kg (716c/kg with inflation)

National Mutton Indicator

2025: 618c/kg carcass weight

2015: 368c/kg (474c/kg with inflation)

Urea

2025: $702 a tonne

2015: $335 a tonne ($431 with inflation)

Diesel (average retail pump price)

2025: 188.1 cents/litre

2015: 130.4 cents/litre (167c with inflation)

Eastern Market Indicator (wool)

2025: 1210c/kg

2015: 1172c/kg (1509c/kg with inflation)

Dairy (Australian farm gate milk price)

2025: $8.25 per kilogram of milk solids

2015: $4.60 to $5.00 per kilogram of milk solids ($5.92 with inflation)

Wheat

2025: $381 a tonne (delivered Melbourne)

2015: $285 a tonne ($367 with inflation)

Barley (Feed grade)

2025: $360 a tonne (delivered Geelong)

2015: $281 a tonne ($361 with inflation)

Hay (cereal hay)

2025: $330-$415 a tonne

2015: $215-$235 a tonne ($276-$302 with inflation)

Canola

2025: $785 a tonne (non-GM)

2015: $485 a tonne ($624 with inflation)

Cotton

2025: $580 a bale

2015: $530 a bale ($682 with inflation)

Rice

2025: $380 to $450 a tonne

2015: $385 to $405 a tonne ($495-$521 with inflation)

Retail meat (beef)

2025: $25.95/kg (December 2024 average price)

2015: $17.27/kg ($22.24 with inflation)

Retail meat (lamb)

2025: $19.06/kg

2015: $13.60/kg ($17.52 with inflation)

ABARES Agricultural Commodities statistical data farm costs and returns, show total cash costs (including things such as fuel, fertiliser, cattle and sheep purchases, marketing and water) was $45,265m in 2014-15 and gross value of farm production was $54,533m, with the net value of farm production at $9268m.

In 2024-25 total cash costs were forecast at $75,816m, gross value of farm production was $91,892m and net value of farm production was $16,076m.

So while total costs have gone up, so has the value of production at the same time.

Meat and Livestock Australian senior market analyst Erin Lukey recently crunched some numbers and found cattle prices have remained relatively stable in the past decade, despite high turn off.

Ms Lukey used Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index data to adjust for inflation.

She said the long-term average National Young Cattle Indicator sits at 333c/kg liveweight. The March 2025 quarter average sits slightly higher at 376c/kg, with the previous five quarters holding within 42c of the 24-year average.

“Short-term volatility continues to be driven by rainfall variability and seasonal supply, but quarterly figures offer a more consistent view of medium-term market conditions.”

Data for this story has been taken from MLA, NLRS, ABARES, ABS, RBA and The Weekly Times archives.