Seymour Alternative Farming Expo: Lazy, crazy days of summer

WITH the memory of last year’s crazy weather still fresh, expo visitors will be keen to catch Seasonal Risk Agronomist Dale Grey’s climate presentation.

Seasonal Risk Agronomist Dale Grey celebrates The Break climate summary for Victorian farmers’ tenth birthday. Picture: Dale Webster

WITH the memory of last year’s crazy weather still fresh, expo visitors will be keen to catch Seasonal Risk Agronomist Dale Grey’s climate presentation.

While Victoria enjoyed a great start in April, South Australia and NSW missed out. June was dry across the nation, and the rain held off until July and August.

The question on everyone’s lips will surely be, “Are we in for a similar year in 2018?”.

“There is almost nothing you can say about the coming season as a result of what happened last year,” Dale said.

Instead, he will explain how the tropical oceans and the Southern Ocean affect weather across Australia, and what time of year people can trust climate models the most.

“The best guidance of what will happen is available in July,” he said.

“Particularly for spring.”

Dale said a La Nina was now affecting Australia, with a cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and warm surface waters in the western Pacific and to the north of Australia.

Usually, La Ninas result in more rainfall, but not with this unusual event, Dale said.

“What is different about this one is it is probably only one of two we have had in last 100 years that has started late in the season, formed in December and will be gone in February,” he said.

“Most in summer don’t have a great effect on Victoria’s rainfall.”

Some models predict a greater chance of another La Nina after a La Nina. Others predict the opposite, but Dale said there was not much certainty in either prediction at this time of year.

Instead, he advised farmers to consider what they can do in response to predictions later on.

“Croppers, at that time of the year (July), have the ability to change their nitrogen rates,” he said. “The grazing people have an amazingly large number of levers to pull.”

Dale will explain more about last year’s weather and strategies to deal with outlooks, on February 17 at 10am.