‘Tsunami’ of Western District lambs about to hit the market

Turn-off from Victoria’s lamb powerhouse, the Western District, will see a surge in supply in the lead up to Christmas.

A “tsunami” of southern lambs is about to hit the market, as a lack of feed and a need for cashflow means trucks loaded with lambs begin to make their way to saleyards.

Although many producers are being forced to sell lambs lacking weight, the price outlook remains modestly confident.

This week rates lifted in early sales. At Bendigo on Monday pricesc were up $10-$20 and the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator is at 794c/kg carcass weight, up 10c/kg in a week.

Restocker lambs were averaging 708c/kg – 62c/kg higher for the week.

Kerr and Co agent Zac van Wegen from Hamilton said big numbers were just starting, as Hamilton moves to three-days of selling next week.

“People don’t really start selling here until after the Melbourne Cup, but I tell you I can feel the tsunami coming,” he said.

“The season has cut out and there’re a lot of unfinished lambs north and north west of Hamilton. To the south, there are very good lambs but they might still battle for weight.

“But people have got to sell, they need the money, we’ve got to remember this time last year it was the worst week of lamb selling many people have had, and now, millions and millions of dollars have left this region on hay and grain.”

The silver lining was lambs weighing above 24kg were still making 800c/kg and above and store demand was reasonably good.

Nutrien-Savin Livestock Marketing’s Sam Savin from Hamilton said the flush “could have come in faster, I’m surprised how good the feed has held on given the low rainfall”.

“Prices are a lot better than last year and even the store job has more confidence thanks to kill prices in the mid-800c/kg,” he said.

“But we will see what happens when the big flush of store lambs come in.”

At Naracoorte in South Australia, Elders livestock manager Josh Reeves said with the South East’s annual turn-off into its second half pressure was on stores.

“It has corrected in the last 10 days, we’re selling a lot as stores now, mainly to feedlotters,” he said.

“Prices for kill lambs have held on pretty well the whole way through; I think it will get dearer in December.”

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said while surveys showed prices boosted producer confidence, heavy lambs rates outpaced trades.

“Normally when the big sheep centres, Victoria and SA, are dry we see falls in all categories; that hasn’t happened this year as NSW is having a good season and that is providing a level of price support,” he said.

There was also a divergence between restocker and Merino lamb prices, with Merinos lagging 100c/kg.

With mutton around 400c/kg, Pinkerton Palm Hamlyn and Steen chief executive Robin Steen said “next year you will see the mutton price take off”.

“Its all good news for people who have stuck with their program.”