Shortage of first-cross ewes tipped

Livestock agents and farmers are weighing up the prospect of a looming shortage of first-cross ewes. We break down the figures.

In the current climate, a smart producer would be buying some Border Leicester rams to put out with Merino ewes, as you can see a shortage looming.

This was a thought-provoking comment from a respected South Australian agent during a recent discussion about livestock trends and changes to sheep production.

It triggered The Weekly Times to look into first-cross ewe numbers on the eve of the major crossbred sales which kick off in Corowa in southern NSW on Thursday, following onto Bendigo, Edenhope, Benalla, Ballarat and Naracoorte in South Australia.

And all the data suggests first cross ewe supply, which has been shrinking in recent years, has arguably hit crisis point as farmers shun the specialist market in favour of easier management and quicker returns from other breeding and sale options.

The shift in producer sentiment has been obvious at Border Leicester several ram sales, with agents reporting some pass in rates of 20 to 60 per cent and with some studs struggling to find decent buying depth beyond the top rams in their catalogue.

Numbers at all the coming feature sales are expected to be lower than a year ago, and well below the industry’s heyday when Bendigo would sell over two days and the Naracoorte saleyards were bursting with crossbred ewes.

Figures just tallied for the Blue Ribbon first cross ewe sale at Bendigo during Melbourne Cup Week are 11,800 1-1/2-year-olds to be advertised (down about 3000 on last year) and 15,000 ewe lambs, also down notably in supply.

Rupert Fawcett, Ellis Nuttall and Co at Bendigo, said the low prices of last year, the costs of shearing crossbred sheep and lambs with little to no wool return, and discounts for the first cross wether lamb portion had all taken its toll.

“After last year, a lot of blokes just didn’t bother putting out Border Leicester rams again and just went straight to a White Suffolk for a quicker turn-off of sucker lambs,’’ he said.

Commenting about the drop in one-and-a-half-year-old ewe supply he said “people lost a lot of confidence last spring (when sheep and lamb prices crashed) and didn’t buy as many ewe lambs to grow out”.

Demand is likely to become more evident for first-cross ewes. Picture: Zoe Phillips

The confidence issue also fed into more first cross ewe lambs being slaughtered earlier this year when the lamb market picked up as producers took this early out option rather than risk an unknown replacement ewe market months later.

To look at the figures, the price average for 1-1.2 -year-old first-cross ewes sold at Naracoorte last year was reported at $163. During the autumn and winter it was possible to average over $200 for heavy lambs.

This, plus the drought-like autumn across the south-east, has resulted in a significant cut to the potential supply of 1-1/2-year-old ewes at Naracoorte next month. SA agents are meeting this week to finalise advertising numbers but the talk is just 8000 to 10,000 1-1/2-year-olds will be yarded.

“Numbers will be back for sure,’’ said Robin Steen, director PPHS at Naracoorte.

“A lot of ewe lambs which were to be carried over were slaughtered earlier this year.’’

Reporting a similar issue are selling agents at Edenhope, with Wayne Driscoll from AWN anticipating a 10 to 20 per cent cut in numbers.

“We didn’t slaughter as many as I’ve heard happened over the border in SA but we did loose a percentage which will affect numbers,’’ he said.

This is just a snapshot of the decline in saleyard supply for these feature first-cross ewe and lamb markets.

Broaden out the analysis and the trend of a smaller supply pool of crossbred ewes out there is also evident online.

Michael McManus, business and data analyst with AuctionsPlus, ran the figures on first cross ewe listings in the past three months compared to the same July to mid-October period in 2023.

It shows a 60 per cent decline.

The figures were:

- 37,556 first-cross ewes listed from July to mid October in 2023, the biggest trading month being September when 20,601 were on the platform, compared to;

- 23,554 first-cross ewes listed from July to mid October this year, and of this period the busiest month was September at 11,300 listed.

There is a complex array of reasons for the decline in first-cross ewe supply. The market can be erratic, some years delivering big returns and other seasons giving farmers no financial reward for carrying out stock to 18 months.

The presentation of first cross ewes also requires full vaccination regimes, including Gudair vaccinations and potentially mulesing. They also have to be shorn at least twice and kept on good feed to reach genetic potential. Then there is the downside of the first cross wether portion which are not favoured by restockers or meat works as lambs, often discounted and can take longer to finish to slaughter condition.

Compare this workload and cost to selling a White Suffolk Merino or Dorset Merino-cross sucker lambs at six to nine months.

Agent Clynton Rixon, Corcoran Parker at Corowa, said financial rewards had not been good or consistent enough to keep farmers in the game.

“They are not breeding them as they having been getting enough reward for the effort,’’ he said.

Which leads to two considerations out of this analysis.

From a buyers perspective, the shrinking pool of first cross ewes is something to keep in mind particularly as this year prices for store sheep are favourable from a trading perspective.

Good sucker lambs are still making 800c/kg carcass weight into October or $200 to $250 for the lead drafts. Add to this trade in ewe prices of $80 to $120 for heavy crossbreds and it means this income is more than what many of the 1-1/2-year-olds are expected to make.

The second consideration is the potential opportunity to step into first cross ewe breeding as the cycle turns on low supply moving forward.

“There is an argument that if you are prepared to go outside the box and can see the way clear to breed some first-cross ewes there could be an upside in coming years, provided you can put up with the wether lambs and the work involved,’’ he said.