High prices lift sentiment but sheep numbers keep falling

Stunning sheep and lamb prices have made producers more positive but the national flock is still expected to fall. We reveal the numbers from the latest survey of producers.

High lamb and sheep prices might have improved sheep industry sentiment but fewer ewes will be joined next year according to an industry survey.

Responses collected in May for the Sheep Producers Intention Survey from 2374 respondents showed 41 per cent intended to decrease their ewe flock in the next year. This would translate into an overall 9 per cent fall in the national breeding ewe flock, from 48.9 million this year to 44.3 million in 2026.

While the survey was taken before the recent hike in lamb rates, which sent values consistently over 1000c/kg carcass weight, it was the influence of West Australian producers which drew the national ewe joining back.

The survey results showed about 48.8 million ewes were joined this year, but 44.3 million would be joined in 2026.

And in WA, six in 10 sheep producers said they were going to decrease their flock size in the next year, leading to an overall fall in numbers in that state by 19 per cent.

NSW and Victoria remain the nation’s two major sheep states which collectively had 62 per cent of the numbers, while WA is holding on to third place with 17 per cent ahead of South Australia with 15 per cent.

Further findings from the survey include: 20 per cent of the national flock is in operations with more than 10,000 sheep; 36 per cent of the flock is held by producers with 2000 or less sheep; Merinos are the biggest ewe base at 64 per cent of all breeders; the biggest state for composites is Victoria where 30 per cent fall of ewes fall into this category; and Queensland has the highest number of shedding sheep at 30 per cent.

Meat and Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Erin Lukey, said improved sentiment was linked to better prices for sheep and lambs.

“Prices have risen significantly, particularly for finished lambs, which has buoyed confidence even as producers face tough seasonal and regulatory conditions,” Ms Lukey said.

But she said even with better prices, there were still challenges for producers.

“Weather remains the most cited factor influencing on-farm decisions, with significant drought in South Australia, Victoria and southern NSW reducing pasture availability and increasing feed costs,” she said.

Ms Lukey said flock reductions are being driven by strategic downsizing and environmental pressures.

“Many producers are taking a more conservative approach,” she said.

“Input costs, labour availability, and regulatory pressures, particularly the live sheep export phase-out, are weighing heavily on producers’ minds.”