Buoyant beef: Analysts weigh in on the global stage

Australia’s beef industry is holding firm on the global stage compared to both Brazil and the US thanks to supply strength and market smarts.

Australia is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the global beef market this year despite mounting pressure from Brazil and the US, and a shifting trade landscape.

According to analysts, Australia’s strength lies in its diverse export markets and consistency of supply — considered increasingly valuable as consumers seek reliable, high-quality beef amid tightening production cycles in competitor countries.

“Brazil, the US, Australia and India in any given year will be the biggest exporters in volume of beef,” said Meat and Livestock Australia global supply analyst Tim Jackson.

Brazil continues to lead the world in volume, slaughtering 39.3 million cattle in 2024 to produce 10.2 million tonnes of beef.

More than half of that – 55 per cent – was sent to China, with occasional exports to markets such as Turkey. The country’s beef is predominantly produced from broadacre systems using disease-resistant Nelore cattle, and its feedlot sector remains small compared to the size of its herd. Brazil’s steer carcass weights averaged just 252kg in the first quarter of 2025 — well below those of its competitors.

In contrast, the US beef industry is highly intensive, with more than 90 per cent of production coming from grain-fed systems. The average steer carcass weight in the US sits at 431kg, with fed cattle averaging 416kg — significantly higher than Australia’s average steer carcass weight of 345kg. US beef is heavily exported to Japan and South Korea, and more recently to China, where it increasingly competes head-to-head with Australian product.

However, the US cattle herd is currently at its lowest level in 74 years, following a prolonged period of destocking due to drought. Mr Jackson said this was now giving way to a herd rebuild, which will further constrict beef supply as producers retain more breeding females rather than selling into feedlots.

“Some American producers would be looking at it and saying it’s financially attractive to sell a heifer into the feedlot rather than retain for the herd,” he said. “There have been some places where seasonal conditions weren’t great, but cattle prices were very strong.”

Brazil, meanwhile, is capitalising on its low-cost production to increase its presence in the US market, with a notable lift in shipments in the opening months of 2025. “Brazil’s beef is relatively cheap — the first question we’d ask is why it hadn’t happened in the past,” Mr Jackson said.

Brazil also recorded a 1.5 per cent increase in production during the first quarter of 2025.

Despite the global race for market share, Australia’s position remains steady.

StoneX livestock and commodities manager Ripley Atkinson said Australia’s broad market spread across China, Japan, the US, Korea and Southeast Asia insulated it from the volatility seen in more concentrated export strategies.

“Australia’s diversity puts it in a good place, because we’re not leveraged at the centre,” Mr Atkinson said. “We don’t have all our eggs in one basket, unlike Brazil who supplies China predominantly.”

Australia is also tipped to benefit from recent tariff tensions between China and the US, which could see Chinese importers favour Australian red meat over American product.
Mr Atkinson said while US tariff announcements and adjustments would influence the market this year, for Australia, 2025 was shaping up to be “business as usual”.

India, which rounds out the top four global beef exporters, plays a less direct role in Australia’s premium beef competition, as its focus remains on exporting carabeef — water buffalo meat — to the Middle East, northern Africa and Southeast Asia.