Shock exit of sheep producers from industry

A significant fall in sheep numbers and wool production are the latest predictions for the industry this year. See the details.

Sheep numbers are expected to fall by 10 per cent in 2024/2025 as dry conditions and lower returns have an impact.

The national flock is expected to dip below 65 million sheep as producers turn away from the industry on the back of lower returns.

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has released its latest predictions, which point to a 10 per cent fall in both wool production and sheep numbers for the 2024/2025 season.

Sheep numbers had been stable over the prior two reporting periods, at a flock size of about 71.5 million, but analysts believe this will dip to 64.2 million this financial year.

The flow-on effect will see wool production drop from its recent high of 328 million kilograms in the 2022/2023 reporting period, down to just 285 million kilograms.

Western Australia’s wool volume will fall to 44.7 million kilograms, down 18.8 per cent year-on-year while Victoria’s cut will dip to 55.9 million kilograms, losing 14.8 per cent.

The poor season is being blamed for the dip in numbers, though producer sentiment is also coming into play.

AWPFC chairman Stephen Hill said the deterioration in seasonal conditions in western Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and south-west New South Wales since the April meeting prompted the downward revision of the April forecast.

“Held over lambs and older breeding ewes that were retained in the flock at the beginning of the season have now been turned off prompted by the recovery of sheepmeat prices in recent months,” Mr Hill said.

“The May 2024 Sheep Producer Intentions Survey indicated a reduction in producer sentiment regarding both the wool and sheepmeat sectors compared to sentiment in May 2023.

“Seasonal conditions, feed availability, input costs, availability of labour as well as sheep and wool prices are the key factors impacting on-farm decision making.”

Wool Producers Australia and Gippsland farmer Steve Harrison said the dry season in parts only added to the reasons people were wanting to get out of sheep.

“They really want to see more value for the product they sell, whether that is lamb or mutton or wool,” Mr Harrison said.

“There is a lack of enthusiasm for sheep at the moment and rain in the next little while might fix some of that.

“But I think when people do their finances this year (sheep) there will be a few shocks to the system.”

The latest sheep predictions came after advice from six state committees, which drew together information from growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, sheep pregnancy scanners, state departments of agriculture and Australian Wool Testing Authority as well as those in the export industry.

The group will meet next in December to update its forecasts.