Lamb prices: Sucker lambs to test buying strength

Sucker lambs are expected to start entering the market, and could put pressure on rates in a volatile market. See the predictions.

Lamb producers are hoping they have seen the worst of prices as the industry prepares for the first influx of suckers later this month.

Price rises of up to $30 for the best lambs at Bendigo on Monday and lifts at Wagga Wagga last week came on the back of smaller yardings.

And with the first suckers expected to hit NSW saleyards by the end of July, the convergence of old and new season lambs is expected to test rates.

Riverina Livestock Agents director James Tierney, Wagga Wagga, NSW, said he didn’t think sucker numbers would have a detrimental effect.

“The prices are about the overall number of lambs,” Mr Tierney said.

“Suckers don’t have as big an impact as they did 10 years ago as we are more of an export-dominated industry now.”

Mr Tierney said weight would be the key to gaining good prices from suckers given the difficulty in finding heavy young lambs.

The rise in lamb prices in recent weeks was a welcome sign, and Mr Tierney attributed this to decreasing numbers.

“The south is getting through the lambs,” he said.

However, with smaller yardings at markets including Bendigo and Corowa on Monday, the test of whether the indicator would remain stable or improve is expected to play out when bigger numbers sell at Wagga Wagga on Thursday.

Further south, livestock agents at Corowa in southern NSW were not expecting to see sucker lambs hit the market until at least August due to the wet weather.

Selling action at the Corowa prime lamb sale.

David Hill of David Hill Livestock and Property at Albury said depending on weight and quality, he tipped suckers to make around 700c/kg carcass weight.

He said the price drops in June had eroded vendor confidence.

Meat and Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said typically young lambs came into markets at the end of July.

“Across the country, yardings of new season lambs are very tight which is not surprising really,” Mr Atkinson said.

“From mid-August it will become noticeable that new season lambs begin to be yarded in larger volumes.”

Meanwhile MLA released its sheep projections this week and used six analysts to forecast prices across the next three months with levels expected to settle below 600c/kg carcass weight.

Those analysts predicted the national trade lamb indicator would hit 553c/kg by September 30. On Monday, it closed at 557c/kg.

The analysts also made a heavy lamb price prediction of 553c/kg carcass weight in a similar time frame, compared to the current national rate of 564c/kg.

Mr Atkinson said the price projections came as Australia’s flock reached its highest level since 2007.

“The outcomes of this strong improvement in sheep numbers will deliver strong volumes of finished-weight stock to market,” Mr Atkinson said.

“With improved genetics and on-farm management driving historically elevated carcass weights, we will see record lamb production and export volumes, as well as high mutton production.

“Increased production and slaughter volumes within Australia, coupled with changing dynamics in key rival markets, will cement Australia’s place as the number one exporter of the world’s sheepmeat.”