Cattle prices tipped to lift 20 per cent this year, 10 per cent in 2025

Softness in key Asian markets is tempering how much prices processors are willing to pay for Australian cattle, while the US herd is not rebuilding fast.

Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.

Cattle prices are predicted to improve 20 per cent this year in Australia, Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird told the BetterBeef conference in Ballarat today.

And by next year, prices were likely to lift a further 10 per cent, he said.

While the influence of the slowly rebuilding US herd and price on global beef prices was a positive factor that could give strength to returns for Australian cattle producers, there was weakness in major export markets.

This softness was being seen in key Asian markets and was tempering prices producers could expect to receive in the shorterm, Mr Gidley-Baird said.

The Australian herd was now at a “normal” stocking level.

Despite dry conditions in large parts of southern Australia, the terrific season in the beef powerhouse state of Queensland was underpinning high supply levels.

And production was high – slaughter was tracking at elevated levels, up 15 per cent; while the record numbers of cattle on-feed was at 1.35 million cattle.

Australia was now finishing 40 per cent of its cattle production on grain and half of that grain-fed beef was destined for domestic channels, he said.

And while red meat export volumes were booming, Mr Gidley-Baird said this was “not necessarily” due to strong international demand.

Instead, those exports were driven by availability of product and attractive pricing levels of Australian product.

“Asian markets remain soft,” he said.

“They have high inventories that are taking time to clear.”

While customers were returning to eat out at restaurants in Asia, they were often spending less on their meals.

“Asian markets just aren’t firing,” he said.

Processors needed to sell the entire carcass, not only top end cuts and the Asian markets needed to absorb more of that product to see a lift in prices paid to Australian producers, he said.

Meanwhile, the US herd was coming out of a major drought and being rebuilt more slowly than expected.

There was not a lot of confidence in US producers to aggressively rebuild their numbers, he said.

The US was a global price setter that other markets followed and there was “definitely upside for global trim markets”.

Meanwhile, Mr Gidley-Baird said Australia should be aware of the disruption animal diseases could have on global meat markets, and also pointed to non-financial sustainability reporting as a growing demand from customers and the finance sector.

His presentation was delivered at the Betterbeef conference in Ballarat today.

The event was part of a two day feature attended by 180 people today, and 300 yesterday, which was the Best Wool Best Lamb annual gathering.