Cattle prices take a dive due to lack of rain

There has been a sharp turnaround in producer confidence as the lack of summer rain starts to impact the cattle market.

Lack of rain and hot weather, resulting in lower producer confidence has put the skids on cattle prices.

Most of the major market indicators are weaker than the same time 12-months ago, despite a strong start to the year and signficantly higher weaner prices at the new year calf sales.

The benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator was at 618c/kg carcass weight on Tuesday – a fall of 31c/kg in a week and 51c/kg lower than the same time last year.

It’s a 14 per cent drop from where the indicator opened 2025, when it was at 725c/kg.

Restockers have been reluctant to purchase, with the restocker yearling steer indicator down 24c/kg in a week to 349c/kg liveweight – 38c/kg lower than the same time in 2024, and while heavy steers are lower week-on-week at 330c/kg, the indicator is 21c/kg higher than the same time last year.

Meat and Livestock Australia senior market analyst Erin Lukey said restocker prices were below year-ago levels because of the dry summer season.

“In November, December 2023 and January 2024 there was good summer rain along the east coast, which provided a strong confidence boost, but we haven’t had the same summer rainfall this year and confidence is low, especially in South Australia and Victoria,” Ms Lukey said.

“The outlook in those regions is average, but an average season won’t replace the damage of the dry weather of the past 18 months.”

TB White and Sons livestock manager Xavier Bourke from Ballarat said the tight seasonal conditions were affecting the market, with water now becoming an issue in western Victoria.

“Feed is scarce and producers’ confidence is not high,” Mr Bourke said.

Mr Bourke said Ballarat’s annual female sale, to be held this Friday, had 2000 cattle booked in, which was “larger than normal” due to the seasonal conditions.

He said while the upcoming weaner steer and heifer sales at the centre would have similar numbers to previous years, some of the cattle would be brought forward from April, May and June sales.

And the dry season and hot weather outlook impacted store sales last week.

Elders livestock manager Michael Foote from Korumburra said prices eased another 10-20c/kg at Leongatha store sale last Thursday.

Mr Foote said local restockers were cautious as the “season dries off and some hot weather is on the way”.

Corcoran and Parker partner Kevin Corcoran from Wodonga said the Wangaratta blue ribbon sale last Friday, where 5300 cattle were yarded, was also cheaper, similar to other sales during the past two weeks, which a “huge storm event” could have changed.

“It’s very dry right from the Murrumbidgee River in central NSW, right through to the bottom of Victoria,” Mr Corcoran said.