Australian cattle and lamb producers should expect better returns. Read why.

Producers are tipped to receive better prices in the next three years, a pricing expert says, but after that it will be global processors who reap the benefits of rebuilt herds.

Producers are tipped to be in the box seat for the coming three years as some of the world’s largest beef exporting nations hold onto more breeders, pushing slaughter-ready cattle prices higher.

But, after that, as volumes of cattle peak across four major exporters – Australia, Brazil, United States and India – it would be the processors reaping the benefits of high supplies.

Global Agri Trends independent analyst Simon Quilty predicted Australian cattle and sheep meat producers would receive prices “considerably higher” than current trends later this year, in 2025 and 2026, as a result of the global red meat supply dynamics.

This comes as the world’s biggest animal protein company, JBS, last week reported a weaker bottom line in the past calendar year, mostly due to tough conditions for meat processors in the US market.

JBS’s results showed “beef processing has been really challenging in the last six months” in North America, Mr Quilty said, with higher US cattle prices and high input costs hitting margins for all processors.

He said there was the expectation of tightening global beef supplies as Australia, Brazil, US and India rebuilt herds in late 2024 through until 2027.

Should all these rebuild patterns align during 2025-2027, Mr Quilty said this would lead to tight supplies for slaughter-ready stock and challenging conditions for processors.

But in the longer-term, into 2027 and 2028, the build-up of numbers across those major producing countries would result in favourable conditions for processors.

“Come 2027-29, if those supplies come on, processors will be in a position to capitalise,” he said.

For producers, he predicted a livestock price “correction” was likely in 2028-29, where processors would be likely to do “enormously well” longer term.

Looking to demand for live export cattle, Mr Quilty said the hunger from Indonesia – despite the current issues with the Brahman Express – was also likely to increase.

This was due to a reduction in the availability of a competing protein, Indian buffalo, throughout Asia.

Therefore the importance of the Australian live export cattle trade to Indonesia was likely to grow in the next few years, he said, despite the current “isolated” incident.

“There is going to be tighter protein supplies globally for the next three years, across the board as the four major global exporters rebuild supplies of beef and while there is never a good time for these things to happen, I’d say common sense will prevail and the need for protein is great (in Indonesia) so this is likely to be resolved in a sensible way where access to that protein is not inhibited.”

ANZ Agribusiness research associate director Alanna Barrett said there was a good global outlook for demand for beef as the herd rebuilt in the US, but in the short-term high local supplies were “keeping a lid on” prices.