Aussie sheep flock set to increase, as producers rebuild

MLA have revised their national sheep industry projections. Here are the latest figures.

Producers are planning to retain more sheep and lambs to rebuild the national flock.

Producers are holding on to more sheep, with the national flock forecast revised up.

According to Meat and Livestock Australia’s latest Sheep Industry Projections, released yesterday, the national sheep flock has been revised up to reach 68.1 million sheep by June 30 this year — up from 67.3 million sheep forecast in February.

The flock is then expected to continue to rise to reach 75.4 million sheep in 2023.

And as producers hold on to more sheep, slaughter levels have been revised down.

Lamb slaughter is expected to fall from 20.8 million originally forecast in February to 20.3 million, while sheep slaughter will fall from 6.6 million to 6.1 million sheep.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said a “big cohort” of lambs was expected this year due to plenty of green feed and mild temperatures making conditions ideal.

“We expect producers to retain more lambs, but they will also mark more, so slaughter won’t change too much,” Mr Bignell said.

Average carcass weights haven’t changed, with lambs to average 24.4kg/head and sheep about 25.8kg.

Mr Bignell said a lot of weight gain was made last year due to the “abundant feed” available.

Mutton production is forecast to fall 9 per cent to 155,000 tonnes, down from 170,000 tonnes forecast in February, while lamb production will rise 3 per cent to 495,000 tonnes, up from 480,000 tonnes.

Mr Bignell said the change in the slaughter and production figures was because producers were holding on to more sheep to rebuild their flocks, and as there would be a big cohort of lambs, net production is equalling out between sheep and lambs.

Meanwhile, live exports are expected to fall 21 per cent to 640,000 sheep. This has been revised from February when a modest increase of 2 per cent was forecast.

Mr Bignell said this drop was a result of the Qatar subsidy removal on sheepmeat from both chilled carcasses and locally-slaughtered imported Australian sheep.

Mutton exports will drop 12 per cent to 125,000 tonnes shipped weight, while lamb exports will rise 6 per cent to 280,000 tonnes.

Year-to-date figures show mutton exports to China have increased 34 per cent, due to the shortfall in protein due to African swine fever, while lamb to the US has increased 13 per cent.

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