Analysts predict how weaner sales will track
With the 2024 weaner sales kicking off, see the expert predictions and all the sale dates for the next two months.
The rebound in cattle market confidence will face its biggest test yet as southern Australia yards tens of thousands of weaners at annual calf sales.
The major round offering of weaners last year gave the first inkling of what was to come for the cattle market in 2023, as rates were slashed from all time highs.
But vendors and agents are hopeful the quality of the annual drafts for 2024 will tempt buyers back into action, and are pinning their hopes of a northern raid on numbers.
Almost 65,000 weaners will be offered across Victoria in the next two weeks, including 40,000 in the first week of sales, which kick off with a monster offering of 10,400 steers and heifers at Wodonga and Wangaratta next Tuesday.
The sales come as the benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator hit a peak of 575c/kg carcass weight in early December before closing at 481c/kg as prices slipped away towards year’s end.
And while the late lift in the EYCI was welcomed, it’s still a far cry from its peak of 1192c/kg carcass weight in January 2022, and down from the 850c/kg when weaner sales kicked off last year.
Elders Albury and Holbrook manager Matt Tinkler said rain determined the fortunes of the weaner sales, not only locally but in key buying areas in northern NSW and Queensland.
He said there were a number of factors working in the favour of weaner sales, including the stabilising of prime prices, “clear light” for feeder cattle rates, capacity freeing up at abattoirs and new processors coming online.
“My gut feel is that we have stopped the downward slide in cattle prices and there is enough confidence in the market that we’ve seen in the past four to six weeks that will be positive for the weaner sales,” Mr Tinkler said.
“These are annual drafts of feature cattle and buyers know that.”
Northern buyers will be there, but Mr Tinkler said they could be more cautious than in the past.
The freight cost, of up to $8-$9/km to truck cattle home, would also come into play and could be a limiting factor, he said.
Mr Tinkler anticipated strong competition from feedlots for the heavier end of weaners, and restockers to be active on lines under 350kg.
Kerr and Co Hamilton livestock manager and president of the Hamilton Stock Agents Association Craig Pertzel said weaner prospects were a lot more positive than six weeks ago.
“Back then, we were worried about who would buy them, let alone what they would make,” Mr Pertzel said.
He predicted many steers would fall into the $1000-$1300 range – something that was unlikely before recent rain across parts of eastern Australia.
“Rain is the driver of everything and it’s spun things around for the better,” he said.
Northern competition is not a given at centres such as Casterton and Hamilton but Mr Pertzel said he was hopeful northern NSW buyers would venture south.
And he said while rates would certainly be back on last year, vendors were realistic.
“I don’t want to sound flippant but they breed these weaners to sell,” Mr Pertzel said.
“There’s been plenty of years they’ve accepted $600-$800 and a couple where they were paid $2200-$2300 and plenty in between.
“They will meet the market – they always do.”
Nutrien Kyneton agent Jackson Barton will be yarding weaners later in the selling season with that centre’s offering in the third week of sales.
Mr Barton said he was confident there would still be competition once the first two weeks of sales were over.
“Obviously there are big numbers going through the system in that space of time,” Mr Barton said.
“But it is the same every year and the buyers are aware and they follow the numbers.
“There is a lot more positivity now in the market after rain and it will put a lot more confidence in the job.”
Grant Daniel Long Toowoomba agent Jeff Garland said northern buyers would travel south to secure cattle “but at a price”.
“They will be a bit circumspect at these sales and will be watching their buy and sell spread (in prices) pretty closely,” Mr Garland said.
“They will buy to a price, factoring in the fact that it will cost them 20-25c/kg to get them home depending on how many they put on a load and their weights.
“But we can also see that we will be up against local competition too, so it will be a matter of seeing how the prices track.”
CALF SALES 2024 WEANER SELLING CALENDAR
TUESDAY, JANUARY 2
WODONGA
6000 Angus steer and heifer weaners, independent agents, 9am
WANGARATTA
4500 Angus steer and heifer weaners, Corcoran Parker and Elders, 2pm (to start after the NVLX Wodonga sale)
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 3
WODONGA
4500 Angus weaners, Elders and Paull and Scollard Nutrien, 9am
COLAC
4000 Birregurra steer and heifer weaners, associated agents, 10am
THURSDAY, JANUARY 4
MORTLAKE
7000 steer and heifer weaners, associated agents, 9am
WODONGA
3500 Hereford and Euro mixed sex weaners, independent agents, 9am
NARACOORTE, SA
3200 steer weaners, combined agents, 10am (SA time)
WANGARATTA
2500 Premier all breeds feature weaners, Corcoran Parker and Elders, 2pm (to start after the NVLX Wodonga sale)
FRIDAY, JANUARY 5
YEA
2800 Upper Goulburn Rivers Annual Classic steer and heifer weaners, Nutrien, 9.30am
WODONGA
Hereford and Euro steer and heifer weaners, Elders and Paull and Scollard Nutrien, 9am
NARACOORTE, SA
1600 heifer weaners, combined agents, 9am (SA time)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 6
WODONGA
1200 steer and heifer weaners, Ray White Rural, 9am
MONDAY, JANUARY 8
HAMILTON
4300 Angus steer weaners, independent agents, 12pm
TUESDAY, JANUARY 9
CASTERTON
2500 Angus steer weaners, Elders and Nutrien, 8.30am
HAMILTON
3100 all breeds steer weaners, Elders, Nutrien, J and J Kelly, Brian O’Halloran and Co, 12pm
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10
CASTERTON
2000 Hereford weaners, Elders and Nutrien, 8.30am
HAMILTON
2400 Hereford and Euro steer weaners, independent agents, 12pm
EUROA
1600 Annual Blue Ribbon steer and heifer weaners, combined agents, 9am
THURSDAY, JANUARY 11
HAMILTON
1800 all breeds heifer weaners, Elders, Nutrien, J and J Kelly, Brian O’Halloran and Co, 12pm
MORTLAKE
Feature females, associated agents, 10am
NARACOORTE, SA
1200 feature females, combined agents, 10am (SA time)
PAKENHAM
4000 steer and heifer weaners, associated agents, 9am
FRIDAY, JANUARY 12
CASTERTON
2300 heifer weaners, Elders and Nutrien, 8.30am
HAMILTON
2300 heifer weaners, independent agents, 12pm
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 17
KYNETON
1500 steer and heifer weaners, associated agents, 11am
THURSDAY, JANUARY 18
NARACOORTE, SA
3900 all breeds steer weaners, combined agents, 10am
FRIDAY, JANUARY 19
NARACOORTE, SA
1700 all breeds heifer weaners, combined agents, 9am
YEA
4300 Blue Ribbon steer and heifer weaners, Elders, 9.30am
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2
WANGARATTA
2500 heifer weaners, combined agents, 9am
BALLARAT
1000 joined females, cows and calves, associated agents, 9am
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9
BALLARAT
3000 heifer weaners and grown females associated agents, 9am
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16
BALLARAT
4000 grown and weaner steers, associated agents, 9am
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23
BALLARAT
5000 steer and heifer weaners, Nutrien, 10am
*Numbers are estimates, please check with agents prior to sale.
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