Paul Thompson on almonds: “I think we’ve seen the boom”

The head of one of Australia’s largest almond producers has called the peak of the almond boom following a decade-plus period of rapid growth.

Australia’s almond industry has witnessed the peak of its growth, as land near suitable water sources becomes increasingly scarce, according to one of the nation’s biggest growers.

Select Harvests chief executive Paul Thompson told The Australian Ag Podcast, out today, he believed the almond industry’s rapid paced growth over the past decade was on its last legs.

“I think we’ve seen the boom because of the lack of suitable land close enough to the river, with enough water security,” he said.

“I mean, you don’t just buy a farm on the basis of great soil. It’s a combination of great soil, access to labour and access to water. And these properties are becoming more and more challenging to find from a greenfield environment.”

Mr Thompson said there was a continuing trend of replacing less lucrative crops with almond trees.

“What you will see though is a lot of people taking old trees out and replanting with different planting matrixes,” he said.

Managing Director of Select Harvests Paul Thompson says the lack of land with good access to water will limit growth for Australia’s almond industry. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

A Murray Darling Basin Authority report published earlier this year showed almonds have officially replaced wine grapes as the dominant horticultural crop in the Lower Murray with a total area of 45,000ha, overtaking wine grapes at 43,615ha.

But Mr Thompson said it was unlikely a glut of Australian wine, and particularly red wine, would lead to many of the corporate almond producers buying up struggling vineyards and switching crops, due to the significant cost involved in the process.

Victoria placed a moratorium on new developments below the Barmah Choke three years ago, and growth in plantings on the Victorian side of the Lower Murray was expected to slow as new developments approved before 2019 came to completion.

But growth has persisted in NSW, particularly around the junction of the Murrumbidgee and Murray Rivers.

Mr Thompson said while water was cheap and plentiful now, this explosion of almond plantings is a major cause for concern come the next drought.

“But looking at the moment, we’ve got a good couple of years ahead of us where there’s going to be no real water pressure,” he said.

“I’ve never seen the annual water price so low, and with the number of dams spilling … There’s definitely going to be some stress, but at the moment people are pretty relaxed.”