Australian milk pool 2024-25: Dairy Australia tips evaporation due to drought, flood

Australia’s milk pool has been slowly evaporating for years. So farmers are approaching new numbers with scepticism.

Australia’s milk pool is set to clock in at 8.3 billion litres despite drought and flood, although expert analysts are forecasting a weak start to the new season.

Released today, Dairy Australia’s situation and outlook report has stuck with its 8.3 billion litre prognosis despite large slabs of Victoria parched by drought and NSW dairy territory swept up in recent floods.

However, farm lobby leaders claim a huge production cut is heading towards the sector with weak farmgate pricing also playing a role in the gloomy outlook.

Dairy Australia industry analyst Eliza Redfern said there was a lower appetite for farm business growth due to both economic and climatic factors.

She said the 8.3 billion litre forecast was based on existing trends already in motion this financial year.

“We are expecting national milk production to drop between 0 and 2 per cent in the (2025-26 financial year) - which would mean a milk pool between 8.1 and 8.3 billion litres,” Ms Redfern said.

“It is a rapidly developing situation and we update our forecasts as more information comes to light.”

The smallest milk pool in recent seasons was the 2022-23 financial year at 8.125 billion litres, the lowest since the 1994-95 season when it tallied 8.2 billion litres.

United Dairyfarmers of Victoria president Bernie Free said the status quo forecast was “highly optimistic” considering the ever-expanding spectre of drought.

“There’s no doubt more farmers are considering the future in the industry and it’s as clear as day that will impact the milk pool,” he said.

“I think 8.3 billion litres is highly optimistic when you consider not just the drought, but the fact that cattle in NSW have literally been swept out to see with the floods.”