Australian milk pool 2023-24: Figure higher than expected

A relatively flood-free financial year across much of Australia has given the nation’s milk pool a much-needed fill-up. See Dairy Australia’s forecast for 2023-24.

Australia’s milk pool is slowly rising again with new figures showing output has defied previously flat expectations.

Dairy Australia anticipates the nation’s milk production this financial year will be 2 to 3 per cent higher than previously forecast, bouncing back from a three-decade low.

Released today, Dairy Australia’s situation and outlook report forecasts the 2023-24 will clock in at 8.35 billion litres at the end of the financial year on June 30.

Dairy Australia industry analyst Eliza Redfern said the national production trajectory was trekking toward a straight 8 billion at the start of the season.

However, she said strong prices and relatively stabilised climatic conditions gave the sector a mid-season boost.

“When this 2023-24 season began, we initially were expecting the milk pool to remain steady,” Ms Redfern said.

“In the March situation and outlook report, we were then projecting milk production would increase by 1 per cent – to 8.1 billion litres. But since then, there has been a continuation of timely rainfall and a transition back to more average weather conditions in a lot of regions, we’ve weighted that into our forecast and so now we’re suggesting that milk production will increase 2 to 3 per cent relative to was produced last season.”

The national output figure during the 2022-23 financial year was 8.125 billion litres, the lowest since the 1994-95 season when it tallied 8.2 billion litres.

Ms Redfern said the upswing in milk production was not uniform with a drier-than-average autumn in southwest Victoria and Tasmania offset by wetter conditions elsewhere.

“Some stability in input costs but that experience has been different region-to-region,” she said. “In some southern areas, conditions have been dry in autumn, while in eastern regions, pastures have been quite wet.”

Dairy Farmers of Victoria president Mark Billing said the rising national milk pool was reflected in the business confidence of primary producers.

“Speaking to farmers around the state, there's been some construction of barns in northern Victoria. There’s farmers looking to the future with robotic milking installations, so there is some confidence out there,” he said.

“In southwest Victoria, we’ve had a dry autumn, so that’s hampered things a bit but it’s good to see the national milk pool rise, that after those years of decline, we’re seeing investment.”

Analysts at Dairy Australia anticipate the milk pool in the 2024-25 financial year to flatline or decline minimally, with a figure of 8.3 billion litres anticipated for the forthcoming season.