Russia’s drought cuts wheat crop

Grain exports in Russia are forecast to hit a low due to drought conditions. See what it means for output.

Grain marketers and farmers are keeping a watch on northern hemisphere wheat production, with winter planting in Russia reported to be at an 11-year low.

The current area planted for winter wheat in Russia, according to United States Department of Agriculture figures, is 17.6 million hectares, compared to 28.5 million hectares harvested last year.

Rostov, the largest grain-producing region of Russia, has declared a state of emergency and new figures from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report predict a drop in production for the world’s biggest wheat producer.

The WASDE report cites forecast wheat exports of 43.50 million tonnes for Russia in 2024-25.

This compares to 55.50 million tonnes last year. However, there is some suggestion that drought might be hitting harder than was initially thought.

Rostov acting governor Yuri Slyusar announced that farmers were facing extreme uncertainty and there had been an emergency declaration to allow for compensation claims. About 500 kilometres away, Voronezh has also announced a state of emergency due to losses.

A load of grain is delivered amid the Russia, Ukraine conflict. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV / AFP)

Coarse grain exports in Russia were also revised down by the WASDE report with an estimate of 7.05 million tonnes in 2024-25 compared to 13.27 million tonnes last year.

Grain Brokers Australia consultant Peter McMeekin said he expected northern hemisphere competition for wheat production would start to ramp up in July.

He said there would be more of an indication of the market with movement from Black Sea exporters, including Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria.

Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president Ryan Milgate of Minyip said he was dubious about the figures coming out of Russia.

He said in Victoria, South Australia and Southern NSW, growers were facing drought conditions, and there were concerns about the current crop.

“We are only at the emergence stage for our crop at the moment,” he said.

“It has been a very slow start for us, given it is now June.”

Mr Milgate said that, in addition to the northern hemisphere crop, farmers were considering the potential impact on inputs such as fertiliser as a result of the Iran-Israel conflict.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused widespread airstrikes that have affected agricultural regions, including farmland.

Mr Milgate said access to fertiliser and any associated pricing challenges, plus concerns about fuel, was certainly something that was on the mind of farmers. Nitrogen fertiliser production relies heavily on natural gas, with some supplies sourced from the Middle East.