Rabobank winter crop plantings nears 2016-17 record, canola gains at barley’s expense
Rabobank has released its crop forecast for 2021-22. See how it compares with the last harvest.
UPDATE: Rabobank is forecasting Australian grain growers to again plant a near record winter crop.
The bank is tipping the national area sown to grain to be 22.93 million hectares, within 1 per cent of the record planting in 2016-17 and the second highest in history.
Rabobank has forecast national wheat plantings to rise 3 per cent to 13.3 million hectares, canola to increase 14 per cent to 2.7 million ha, but barley to fall 6 per cent to 4.2 million hectares and oats decreasing by 8 per cent to 900,000ha.
The bank’s estimates show the canola area rising at the expense of barley.
Report co-author Dennis Voznesenski said the fall in barley plantings was a direct result of China imposing import tariffs on Australian grain.
“With canola prices near record highs, and China’s tariff on Australian barley top of mind, farmers have heeded the call and switched in favour of canola,” Mr Voznesenski said.
Rabobank is tipping growers to produce a 4.1 million tonne canola crop, 10 million tonnes of barley and 28.9 million tonnes of wheat.
Mr Voznesenski said substantial rain and good subsoil moisture across many regions meant Australia was well set up for another big winter crop harvest.
“And with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting a 60 to 75 per cent chance of the east coast and South Australia exceeding median rainfall for the next three months, this should set crops up well and have a positive impact on yields in those regions,” he said.
Mr Voznesenski said not every state had good pre-planting rains.
“While most regions had excellent opening rainfall, particularly in Western Australia and northern NSW, not all have been so fortunate,” he said.
“In parts of South Australia and western Victoria, less favourable conditions have meant we will not be able to factor in a year-on-year increase in area planted in those regions, despite prices incentivising many other regions to expand total area.”
Just the same, Rabobank has increased its forecast for the total Victorian planted area by 2 per cent to 3.5 million ha.
It expects more than 100,000ha of extra land being sown to wheat, taking plantings to 1.7 million ha.
The area planted to canola has been increased 32,0000ha to 482,000ha, largely at the expense of barley, which has fallen 26,000ha to the 2021-22 forecast of 844,000ha.
The report authors said that, while many growers were still waiting for a seasonal break to plant their crops, yield losses by planting outside the optimal sowing window was likely to be offset by flowering occurring in the warmer weeks, reducing the risk of frost damage.
Mr Voznesenski said, while more land would be sown to canola, there was a marked shift towards genetically modified varieties, particularly in WA.
“With the premium for non-GM over GM canola declining considerably, we have seen a greater uptake in GM canola this year, with the biggest rise in WA,” he said.
“With non-GM canola supplies tight around the world, this should support a rising premium for non-GM (canola).”
Mr Voznesenski said there had also been swing away from malting barley to feed barley.
“With less malt barley being planted and world malt demand recovering, we see the premium for malt barley over feed barley increasing this season from its lows,” he said.
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