Crop predictions: Australian winter crop production to hit above-average levels

Australia is now on-track for a national rebound in winter grain production, a new report has shown. See what volumes are expected to reach.

Sensational spring: La Nina will help finish crops and improve soil moisture of crops in the eastern states, according to Rabobank. Picture: Zoe Phillips

A WET spring is expected to take Australia’s crops over the line, with yields forecast to reach levels not seen in three years.

Rabobank’s Australian Winter Crop Production Outlook 202-21 report – released today – anticipates 47.4 million tonnes of winter grains, oilseeds and pulses to be harvested this year.

This is an increase of 63 per cent on last year and 16 per cent above the five-year average.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s declaration of a La Nina, will help finish crops and improve soil moisture in the eastern states, the report said.

All states are expected to record an increase in production, with NSW representing 366 per cent increase on last year’s harvest, and Queensland 139 per cent.

“A 22 per cent year-on-year increase in planted hectares, together with well-timed and above-average rainfall in most regions, support our expectations for 28.8 million tonnes of wheat, 11 million tonnes of barley and 3.3 million tonnes of canola to be harvested in Australia in 2020- 21,” Rabobank said.

Rabobank’s estimates follow IKON Commodities recent wheat forecast - which expected the grain to reach a massive 30 million tonnes this year.

This prediction is 16.26 million tonnes higher than last year’s volumes.

This month’s US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, also predicted wheat production to reach 28.50 million tonnes, while, financial services network StoneX, put wheat production at similar levels of 28.71 million tonnes.

And NSW will be the “driving force” behind Australia’s grain recovery in 2020-21, Rabobank said.

“NSW has gone from worst performer to best performer in just 12 months to lead the pack when it comes to grain production,” Rabobank senior grains analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon said.

Last month, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, also attributed NSW production for the nation’s yield turnaround

“NSW is showing the strongest crop prospects,” ABARES said.

“The state is expected to have its second biggest winter crop in a decade, with production predicted at 14.8 million tonnes in 2020-21.

“Last season, drought caused volumes to reach just 3.34 million tonnes.”

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