Optimistic crop projections rely on rain

Lofty crop projections in Western Australia need rain to become a reality, with “80 per cent of the state looking dry”. See the forecasts for WA.

Whether or not winter crop forecasts for Western Australia come to fruition hinges solely on imminent rainfall.

Industry forecasts are that the west will plant a larger crop in comparison with last year, with 8,468,000ha to be sown, compared to 8,290,000 in 2023.

Yet farmers say it all hinges on the weather.

Figures for the past seven days, from the Bureau of Meteorology, show areas in the central wheat belt received varying amounts of rain, with Mount Westdale recording 10mm, Redlands 8mm, Goomalling 2mm, and Konnongorring 1mm.

The Grain Industry of Western Australia crop report indicates a decrease in canola planting, with 1,700,000ha sown compared to 1,845,000 in 2023. However, growers say it could be even less.

Grain Producers Australia chairman Barry Large, of Miling in Western Australia, said he was leaving canola out of his cropping rotation.

Traditionally, canola accounts for 25 per cent of the planting on his property.

However, dry conditions meant he had opted out of the crop.

“Even the safe areas haven’t had any rain; 80 per cent of the state is looking dry,” he said.

Mr Large said farmers were still holding out for rain or a late break but the season had been out of kilter.

“We are still planting here at the moment and we will put in some wheat and barley and more export hay,” he said.

Mr Large said the estimates in the crop report would need rain in the imminent future if they were to become a reality at harvest.

Meanwhile, the report stated most farmers were continuing to dry sow. And if it didn’t rain in the next three weeks large tracts of land could be left to fallow.

Growers are holding out for rain to help winter crop sowing areas come to fruition. Picture: Zoe Phillips

Growers in the west have shown confidence in planting oats this year with 243,000ha sown, compared to 215,000ha last year.

Wheat was tipped at 4,700,000ha this year, an increase from 4,390,000ha last year.

GrainGrowers chairman and York farmer Rhys Turton said many parts of WA had yet to experience any form of seasonal break.

“There is talk of a break this month, but most people are still dry sowing,” he said.

“There are a lot of people who haven’t sown canola, and by now, it is getting too late,” he said.

At York, he said one area had picked up falls of 11mm two weeks ago, but it fell onto an extremely dry soil moisture profile, and the benefit largely disappeared.