Harvest 2023: Rain arrives in the nick of time

El Nino-defying rainfall across southern NSW and Victoria is growing confidence for good yields. See what it means for harvest and prices.

The conflict between Israel and Palestinian Hamas at the weekend has caused ripples across the grains industry with early indications of price impacts.

US wheat immediately showed a small rally of 2.1 per cent across the board. And there were concerns if the conflict continued, it could impact input prices.

Grain Producers Australia chief executive Colin Bettles said the conflict in Israel was awful, and his heart went out to people affected.

He said there would be little impact on the grain market in the short term, but if it became a wider conflict, there could be pressure on fertiliser and fuel.

“We hope this conflict ends very soon,” he said.

Meanwhile, the market domestically felt a reaction to the widespread rain in Victoria and southern NSW last week.

Melaluka Trading director Mick Fitzgerald of Geelong said there was an instant influx of activity on the market. As a result, prices dropped.

He said it was simply due to supply and demand as more grain entered the market.

“There was new and old crop activity,” he said.

However, the market intensity and prices have since stabilised.

Mr Fitzgerald said there was no doubt that prices had eased after the rain. He estimated a drop of $10 to $20 per tonne across the board for wheat, canola and barley.

There is certainly optimism about how the recent rain could help crops reach yield potential. Picture: Zoe Philips

“There was probably some movement of old crop too, to make room for new crop,” he said.

It was estimated the first grain from the 2023 season could be delivered to handling facilities as soon as the first week of November.

Mr Fitzgerald said while prices had declined, it was still necessary to note that yield potential was there and the industry was optimistic.

For farmers growing lentils, prices remained at high levels to average around $900 per tonne.

Mr Fitzgerald said this was back from around $1000 per tonne a month ago.

“Historically, this is a great price,” he said.

And while farmers will keep an eye on the market, there was certainly optimism about how the recent rain could help crops reach yield potential.

Elders Bendigo agronomist Josh McLeod said 60mm fell near Elmore the last week, and the rain was “extremely welcome”.

Some nearby farming regions had received up to 80mm.

Mr McLeod said growers were reasonably confident of some good yields.

“We are still a little way from harvest in this area. There’s been a lot of hay cut in the past 10 days or so,” he said.