Fertiliser prices to drop

After the severe urea shortage of last year, nitrogen fertiliser costs are predicted to fall in 2024, but overall input costs are expected to remain high.

Nitrogen fertiliser costs are predicted to fall by 10 to 20 per cent in 2024. However, there are concerns that overall input costs will remain high.

After the urea shortage of 2023, farmers started 2024 by contacting suppliers early to shore up stocks.

Forecasts suggest that fertiliser prices will be lower than in previous years, with phosphate set to decline by 10 to 15 per cent compared to 2023.

Rutherglen farmer Andrew Russell grows wheat, canola and legumes and runs a prime lamb enterprise.

He is also the Grains Research and Development Corporation southern panel chairman and Ag Edge president. Mr Russell said the current climate for input availability was looking good.

Securing fertiliser was something he said growers were cautious about, given the challenges of last year.

“That particularly related to urea supply,” he said.

Andrew Russell of Rutherglen.

Mr Russell anticipated urea prices would be $740 to $800/tonne at port.

“Urea is our biggest input and probably the one we get most nervous about,” he said.

In addition to fertiliser, Mr Russell said there were other costs to consider, such as fuel, transport, labour and interest rates.

“The cost of everything has gone up, and profit per hectare is under strain,” he said.

Rabobank’s Australian Agribusiness Outlook 2024 report author Stefan Vogel said after the forecast, El Nino didn’t turn out as bad as feared, with recent significant rainfall received across most farming areas.

He said farm input prices were also set to be lower in 2024, with reductions of up to 20 per cent for phosphate fertiliser.

The price decline was attributed to an increase in Chinese production capacity in the past three years.

Southern NSW cropping farmer Bryan Trethowan said he had already made preparations to secure urea for his Walbundrie property for the 2024 season.

He said he had around 1000 tonnes of wheat to deliver to the port at Melbourne in the next month or so. The aim was to use the backloads to cart urea into the area.

Mr Trethowan said he expected to pay around $760/tonne for urea at the port.

“Last year, we ended up driving from Lockhart to Geelong for urea, and some people were driving to Brisbane,” he said.

Mr Trethowan will plant 1000ha of wheat, 700ha of canola, 200ha of barley and 230ha of faba beans for the 2024 winter cropping season.