Farmers say full extent of frost and dry season still not known

The latest figures from the USDA show a slight uptick in expected yields from Australia’s wheat crop. But farmers say the figures are optimistic.

Farmers expect a downward trend in Australia’s wheat yields at harvest despite optimistic forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture.

The United States Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for October projects Australia’s wheat crop at 32 million metric tonnes for 2024-25.

This is projected upwards on the September WASDE when it estimated the crop would be higher than 30m tonnes.

Craig Henderson of Warracknabeal. Picture: David Geraghty

Craig Henderson, who runs property at Warracknabeal and is the president of the VFF Grain Council, said the ultimate test would be at harvest when grain is delivered to the silos.

He said that overall, revising the crop upwards, even though it was down from previous production years, was optimistic given the frost and dry conditions.

Mr Henderson said people were still cutting crops for hay and silage, and regions in Victoria, South Australia, southern NSW, and Queensland were adversely affected by challenging weather.

“It would not surprise me if overall estimates are down … I think it could be disappointing in terms of yields,” he said.

“We still don’t know the full extent of what the crop has done to this crop,” he said.

Chicago Wheat Futures was still tracking below the same levels for this time last year and have yet to rally on any perceived changes in supply.

Wheat was trading at US$597.75 on the futures market early this week and had increased 1.70 per cent in the past five days.

“A $50 a tonne rise would certainly help Australian farmers,” Mr Henderson said.

The overall wheat projections from WASDE are still substantially down from the bumper production of 40.55m tonnes grown in 2022-23.

Mark Schilling of Cunliffe in South Australia. Picture Sarah Reed

Mark Schilling from Cunliffe in South Australia said the inclement weather that impacted the major wheat-growing regions needed to be taken into account.

“We have been fortunate because our crop has tapped into deep soil moisture,” he said.

“We won’t have a bin buster, but we will still be well below the average.”

There were still substantial losses to take into account and he estimated yields could be down by 50 per cent in his wheat.

In addition to the wheat estimates, Australia’s course grain supply projection in the October report was increased to 16.27m tonnes for 2024-25 compared to 15.37m tonnes last month.