Australian farmers face mixed results as bumper harvest battles flat prices
Australian grain farmers have recorded contrasting fortunes in 2025, with northern growers celebrating bumper harvests while southern producers battled challenging seasonal conditions.
Grain and cropping enterprises faced a challenging 2025, with a dry year hitting Victoria and southern NSW, while northern NSW and Queensland enjoyed bumper harvests.
Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences cited production gains across major winter crops, with total grains, oilseeds, and pulses climbing 8 per cent to 70.7 million tonnes, and winter crop production alone increasing 10 per cent to just over 66 million tonnes.
Wheat output rose 4 per cent to 35.6 million tonnes, barley by 18 per cent to a record 15.7 million tonnes, and canola by 13 per cent to 7.2 million tonnes, 50 per cent above the 10-year average.
The national winter crop was valued at $53.4bn, about $300m higher than previously forecast, while many Victorian farmers still had cereal crops to harvest, which was at least a week behind schedule.
Despite the seasonal differences, concerns about prices were shared across the country, with farmers battling flat prices for cereals while canola appeared to be the only firm commodity. However, growers said not everyone achieved yields strong enough to benefit from the prices. In December, wheat was sitting at $358 a tonne delivered to Melbourne, canola at $807, and lentils at $640.
Hay and fodder experienced the wildest fluctuations due to supply and demand. Drought forced cereal hay as high as $650 a tonne in autumn. Later in spring, vast areas were cut for hay and silage, resulting in falls of up to 60 per cent.
Digital Agriculture Services uses satellite imagery to track real-time harvest activity, which shows 105,000 ha of wheat, or 6.9 per cent of Victoria’s crop, was cut for hay, according to executive officer Anthony Willmott.
Throughout the season, northern NSW, Queensland, and Western Australia benefited from favourable growing conditions, while below-average winter and spring rainfall in southern NSW constrained yield potential.
Victoria and South Australia recorded a dry start, though timely spring rain boosted prospects.
Northern NSW farmer Matthew Madden of Moree said it was the second good harvest result in a row, but growers still needed higher prices.
“Crops were good and we had some good yields,” he said. Wheat ranged from 4.5 to 6.5 t/ha, barley 5 to 7 t/ha, and canola 2.4 to 3.2 t/ha. The area was backed by good rain, and growers had already started planting summer crops.
“The season started well with good subsoil moisture and good germination, but our prices are still lagging,” he said.
At Mallala in South Australia, Richard Konzag said rain had arrived too late to significantly boost yields, though barley yielded 4 t/ha, slightly above expectations, and lentils returned 1.99 t/ha.
Rutherglen farmer Andrew Russell said the harvest was running about a week later than usual, normally starting cereals at the start of December.
He said harvest was about 205 per cent of the way through and canola had yielded more than 2.5 tonnes a hectare.
“We are happy with that.”
Growing-season rainfall totaled about 240mm, decile 2–3, though a full soil profile from a wet summer in 2024 helped.
“The harvest has been good, though spring storms frustrated us. It will be interesting to see if the wheat is ready next week, depending on how hot it gets,” he said.
Mr Russell said despite a dry season crops were performing beyond expectations but the challenge was prices and rising input costs.
