Exports decline: What could affect red meat this year
The high Australian dollar and high livestock prices, as well as weakened economies among South East Asian buying nations, have put the screws on importer margins this season.
AUSTRALIA’S cattle export numbers could tumble in coming months, off the back of a shrinking pool of cattle and subdued demand internationally.
The high Australian dollar and high livestock prices, as well as weakened economies among South East Asian buying nations, have put the screws on importer margins.
But despite a forecasted fall in exports, ideal seasonal conditions in many regions and high prices for young cattle paint an overall positive picture of the industry.
ANZ head of agribusiness Mark Bennett, speaking at the Beef Australia event in Rockhampton recently, said while Australia was a big producer on the global market, “we’re smaller in scale”.
“Things are so good at the moment in beef, especially for those not rebuilding,” he said.
“But if you’ve got cattle, if you’ve got grass, and if you’ve got water, then you’re in the money. “
Meat and Livestock Australia’s April cattle projections report forecast slaughter numbers to fall “significantly” this season as producers continue to retain vast numbers of cattle to rebuild depleted herds.
The report forecast a 5 per cent lift to the national cattle herd this year to 25.8 million.
But given the reduction in slaughter numbers this year, the MLA report revised production down to 1.9 million tonnes.
“Production is tipped to reach 2.2 million tonnes carcass weight by 2023 as slaughter increases,” the report said.
“The forecast fall in slaughter production will flow on to export volumes, which are expected to fall 12 per cent to 1.350 million tonnes.”
ANZ head of agribusiness insights Michael Whitehead also noted the shifting dynamic between Australian red- meat consumption and red- meat exports.
“It’s been 50 years since exports overtook domestic consumption in Australia,” Mr Whitehead said.
“The rate of exports are increasing roughly at the same growth rate as Australians are decreasing their per capita consumption of meat.
“Exports have absolutely been driving production.”
According to ANZ data, beef export volumes have risen 3.5 per cent since 1960, about eight times the rate of domestic growth.
Despite the presently tight nature of the cattle industry, exports were forecast to “resume steady upward growth”.
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